China Express(002928) INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES·2024-11-10 05:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the expected earnings growth and market conditions [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant turnaround in its financial performance, with a 411.92% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3 2024, reaching 280 million yuan [2]. - The increase in subsidies and recovery in operational capacity are key drivers for the company's improved profitability [2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the regional aviation market, benefiting from a growing market space and high barriers to entry [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.943 billion yuan, an 18.73% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company’s net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 is projected to be 396 million yuan, with a forecasted growth of 106.8% for 2025 [3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from -7.0% in 2023 to 21.9% by 2026, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [3]. Operational Metrics - The company plans to increase its weekly flight schedule by 9.55% compared to the previous year, with an average of 444 flights per day [2]. - The average daily flight volume since October has reached 349 flights, nearing pre-pandemic levels [2]. - The company has introduced an employee stock ownership plan to boost confidence and align employee interests with company performance [2]. Future Earnings Projections - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 396 million yuan, 819 million yuan, and 1.095 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these years are estimated at 25.4, 12.3, and 9.2 times, reflecting a favorable valuation outlook [3].