罗莱生活更新报告：发布股权激励，彰显公司发展信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of CNY 8.4, up from the previous target of CNY 8.25 [4] Core Views - The company's 2024-2026 EPS forecasts have been revised downward to CNY 0.48/0.56/0.64 due to weak consumer demand impacting terminal sales [2] - The company's position as a leader in the home textile industry remains solid, and it is expected to achieve a higher-than-industry-average PE ratio of 15x for 2025 [2] - The company has launched a 2024 equity incentive plan, covering 148 key personnel, including vice presidents, CFO, and board secretary, with a total grant of 2.8% of the total shares [2] - The company's performance targets for 2025-2027 are set at a revenue or non-GAAP net profit growth rate of no less than 5%/10.25%/15.76% compared to 2024 [2] - The company's fundamentals are expected to bottom out and recover, with significant profit recovery anticipated in 2025, driven by promotional policies and improving US business [2] - The company is expected to maintain high dividend payouts, with a projected 2024 dividend yield of around 6% [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was CNY 5,314 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2024 before recovering to CNY 5,268 million by 2026 [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company was CNY 581 million in 2022, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, and is expected to decline by 30.6% in 2024 before recovering to CNY 532 million by 2026 [1] - EPS for 2022 was CNY 0.70, expected to drop to CNY 0.48 in 2024 before recovering to CNY 0.64 by 2026 [1] - ROE was 13.9% in 2022, expected to drop to 9.8% in 2024 before recovering to 13.9% by 2026 [1] - The current PE ratio is 10.33, expected to rise to 15.09 in 2024 before declining to 11.28 by 2026 [1] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the textile and apparel industry, classified under the consumer discretionary sector [3] - The company's market cap is CNY 6,000 million, with a total of 831 million shares outstanding, of which 827 million are A-shares [5] - The company's 52-week stock price range is CNY 6.17-10.12 [5] Financial Ratios and Valuation - The company's net asset value per share is CNY 4.80, with a PB ratio of 1.5 [6] - The company's net debt ratio is -39.20%, indicating a strong financial position [6] - The company's ROIC is expected to improve from 7.8% in 2024 to 11.4% by 2026 [9] - The company's EV/EBITDA is expected to decline from 8.91 in 2024 to 6.92 by 2026 [9] Historical Performance and Trends - The company's stock price has declined by 21% over the past 12 months, underperforming the index by 32% [7] - The company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 15% year-on-year, primarily due to inventory reduction in the franchise channel and losses in overseas furniture business [2] - The company has been actively optimizing its overseas business and controlling costs, with a 0.4 percentage point decrease in the expense ratio and a 17% reduction in inventory in Q3 2024 [2] Dividend Policy - The company paid an interim dividend of CNY 166 million in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 105% [2] - The company has a history of high dividend payouts, with payout ratios of 141%/88%/58% in 2021-2023, and is expected to continue this trend [2]