XZB(603040) 华创证券·2024-11-10 10:44Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 27.9 RMB, compared to the current price of 23.32 RMB [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under pressure due to a decline in overseas customer sales, with Q3 revenue at 1.7 billion RMB, up 13% YoY but down 9.6% QoQ [2] - The company's cost control measures have shown significant results, with a 3Q24 gross margin of 52.3%, up 1.1 percentage points YoY but down 1.0 percentage points QoQ [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.14 billion RMB, accounting for 25.29% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2] - The company's cold forging technology is expanding into new applications, which is expected to drive future growth [2] Financial Performance - The company reported revenue of 5.0 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2024, up 18% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.62 billion RMB, up 20% YoY [1] - The company's 3Q24 net profit was 0.5 billion RMB, up 23% YoY but down 20% QoQ, with a net profit margin of 31.7%, up 3.5 percentage points YoY but down 3.2 percentage points QoQ [2] - The company's 3Q24 operating expense ratio was 16.9%, down 2.6 percentage points YoY but up 3.7 percentage points QoQ [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.1, 2.5, and 3.0 billion RMB for 2024-2026, with YoY growth rates of 15%, 20%, and 18%, respectively [2] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 15x, 13x, and 11x, respectively [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 20.1%, 17.0%, and 20.1% in 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 15.1%, 19.9%, and 17.7% [3] Business Development - The company's subsidiary, Huzhou New Coordinate, has achieved stable supply to multiple customers, with third-party revenue increasing by 48.14% YoY in the first half of 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its cold forming technology into new areas such as automotive precision solenoid valves, electric drive transmission systems, and power battery system housings [2] Valuation and Financial Ratios - The company's P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 15x, 13x, and 11x, respectively, with P/B ratios of 2.2x, 1.9x, and 1.6x [3] - The company's ROE is expected to be 14.7%, 15.2%, and 15.4% for 2024-2026, with ROIC of 23.6%, 23.4%, and 22.8% [7]