青岛啤酒：Q3结构略有好转，费投拖累盈利

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [5][14]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance shows a slight improvement in structure, but profit is dragged down by increased expenses [1][3]. - Sales volume is under pressure, but the decline in average selling price (ASP) has narrowed [2]. - Cost benefits continue to be realized, but increased expenses are negatively impacting profitability [3]. - Future outlook suggests that Q4 sales may stabilize, with continued cost benefits expected to help reduce losses [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 28.959 billion yuan, down 6.52% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.990 billion yuan, up 1.67% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 4.686 billion yuan, up 1.96% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 8.891 billion yuan, down 5.28% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.348 billion yuan, down 9.03% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.260 billion yuan, down 7.94% year-on-year [1]. Sales and Pricing - For the first three quarters, sales volume was 6.785 million kiloliters, down 7.0% year-on-year; the main brand saw a decline of 6.2%, while the mid-to-high-end segment decreased by 4.2% [2]. - In Q3, sales volume decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, with the main brand down 4.1% [2]. Cost and Profitability - In Q3, the net profit margin decreased by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with a 2.2% decrease in cost per ton [3]. - The gross profit margin increased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio increased by 2.4 percentage points due to higher marketing expenses [3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of -5%, 2%, and 3% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of 4%, 9%, and 8% respectively [3].