AVICHM(600765) 国信证券·2024-11-10 12:47Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][3][9] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 2.05 billion, down 17% YoY and 27% QoQ, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased 16% YoY to RMB 290 million [1][4] - Excluding the impact of Hongshan's consolidation, the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 310 million, up 22.4% YoY [1][4] - The gross margin in Q3 2024 improved to 33.7%, up 2.7 percentage points YoY, driven by the growth in commercial aviation and civil engineering businesses [1][4] - The company's commercial aviation and civil engineering businesses showed strong growth, with civil aviation revenue up 88.6% YoY and civil product revenue up 34.2% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [1][4] Business Development - The acquisition of Hongshan Forging in August 2023 enhanced the company's high-value-added large forging capacity, with Hongshan securing long-term contracts worth RMB 70 million annually and R&D cooperation with Boeing for titanium alloy structural parts, expected to add RMB 20 million in annual orders [1][8][9] - The company plans to acquire an additional 7.81% stake in Anji Precision Casting for up to RMB 130 million, increasing its total stake to 21.3%, to strengthen its casting and forging business layout [1][9] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was RMB 7.52 billion, down 6% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.01 billion, down 1% YoY [1][4] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 31.5%, down 1.9 percentage points YoY [1][4] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio was 51.6% at the end of Q3 2024, down 0.2 percentage points from the end of the previous year [4] Profit Forecast - The report maintains the 2024-2026 profit forecasts at RMB 1.58 billion, RMB 1.90 billion, and RMB 2.31 billion, representing YoY growth of 18.9%, 20.2%, and 21.4%, respectively [1][9][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 21.5x, 17.9x, and 14.7x for 2024-2026 [1][9][10]