BIDU(09888) 东吴证券·2024-11-10 13:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888 HK) [1] Core Views - Baidu's Q3 2024 revenue is expected to be 33 4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3%, with Baidu Core revenue at 26 3 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year [2] - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted at 6 6 billion yuan, with Baidu Core's adjusted operating profit margin at 24% [2] - Advertising revenue is expected to decline by nearly 5% year-on-year due to macroeconomic impacts, while cloud computing revenue is projected to grow by nearly 14% year-on-year [3] - Baidu's AI business continues to gain traction, with its generative AI and cloud computing leading in the Chinese market [3] - The company's AI-driven search transformation is expected to further enhance its core business capabilities [4] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at 133 582 million yuan, a slight decline of 0 76% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 27 153 million yuan in 2024E, down 5 55% year-on-year [1] - EPS (Non-GAAP) for 2024E is forecasted at 9 68 yuan per share [1] Segment Performance - Advertising revenue remains under pressure, with a projected 5% decline in Q3 2024 [3] - Cloud computing revenue is expected to grow by 14% year-on-year in Q3 2024, driven by AI contributions [3] - Non-cloud and non-advertising businesses are expected to remain stable [3] AI and Cloud Computing - Baidu's AI business has established a leading position in China's generative AI and cloud computing markets, with a 32 4% share in the "Model as a Service (MaaS)" market and a 17% share in the "AI Large Model Solutions" market [3] - The company's AI-driven search transformation is expected to further enhance its core business capabilities [4] Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The 2024E Non-GAAP P/E ratio is projected at 8 45x [1] - The company's ongoing share buybacks reflect its commitment to shareholder returns [4] Financial Projections Income Statement - Total revenue for 2024E is projected at 133 582 million yuan, with a slight decline of 0 76% year-on-year [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 27 153 million yuan in 2024E, down 5 55% year-on-year [1] Balance Sheet - Total assets are projected to grow from 406 759 million yuan in 2023A to 477 993 93 million yuan in 2026E [12] - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to decrease from 35 44% in 2023A to 29 15% in 2026E [14] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow is expected to increase from 36 615 million yuan in 2023A to 45 902 06 million yuan in 2026E [13] - Capital expenditures are projected to decrease from 4 335 million yuan in 2023A to 3 400 million yuan in 2026E [13] Key Financial Ratios - ROE is expected to increase from 8 34% in 2023A to 8 48% in 2026E [14] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable, ranging from 50 82% to 52 15% from 2024E to 2026E [14] - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 15 09% in 2023A to 18 49% in 2026E [14]