证券研究报告|投资策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 23 日 [Table_Title] 抖音电商 1-10 月 GMV 同比增速超 30%，中国澳门特区政府估算 2026 年赌收为 2360 亿澳门元 抖音本地生活服务业务在今年同样大幅增长，1-10 月 同比增速接近 60%，全年 GTV 预计将超 8000 亿元。 据《晚点 LatePost》，美团 2024 年的到店 GTV 为 1 万亿元左右，今年二、三季度受外卖大战等影响，增 速有所放缓。 在抖音电商板块，字节跳动高层在集团今年上半年的 全员会上，提出抖音电商当前阶段的新战略：耐用消 费品（包括家电、消费电子产品）实现市场份额突 破；通过优化流量分配机制，提升结算 GMV。 在本地生活板块，抖音到店业务份额不断增长，生活 服务靠用户主动搜索带来的下单率，约是刷短视频直 接下单的 10 倍；目前用户通过搜索后下单创造的 GMV 在抖音生活服务整体 GMV 中的占比已超过 50%。 ► 中国澳门特区政府发布《2026 年财政年度预算 案》法案，估算 2026 年博彩毛收入为 2360 亿元 11 月 18 日，中国澳门特区政府 ...

记者丨王俊 章驰 编辑丨肖潇 一批平台即将成为你的个人信息"守门人"。 11月22日，国家互联网信息办公室、公安部发布《大型网络平台个人信息保护规定（征求意见稿）》（以下简称"征求意见 稿"），明确了对大型网络平台的认定标准，以及应履行的个人信息保护义务。 根据征求意见稿，除却阿里、腾讯、蚂蚁、字节跳动、百度、微博、小红书等互联网平台，DeepSeek、MiniMax、Kimi等迅速 增长的AI公司，以及OPPO、vivo、荣耀等智能终端厂商，不少用户规模也满足征求意见稿中的"用户超5千万或月活超1千万"等 条件，同样可能进入大型网络平台的序列。 "能力越大、责任越大"，这一原则贯穿了数字经济监管始终。该征求意见稿与9月份发布的《大型网络平台设立个人信息保护监 督委员会规定》一脉相承，均可被视为个人信息保护法第58条"守门人条款"以及《网络数据安全管理条例》对大型平台规定的 配套文件。 配套文件的规定，待正式版本发布后，将对上述平台的个人信息保护合规带来重要影响。 AI新贵进入大型平台监管射程？ 4年前，个人信息保护法正式实施。其中第58条创设了"守门人"制度：对于提供重要互联网平台服务、拥有巨大用户数量的企 ...

记者丨王俊 章驰 编辑丨肖潇 一批平台即将成为你的个人信息"守门人"。 11月22日，国家互联网信息办公室、公安部发布《大型网络平台个人信息保护规定（征求意见稿）》（以下简称"征求 意见稿"），明确了对大型网络平台的认定标准，以及应履行的个人信息保护义务。 根据征求意见稿， 除却阿里、腾讯、蚂蚁、字节跳动、百度、微博、小红书等互联网平台，DeepSeek、MiniMax、 Kimi等迅速增长的AI公司，以及OPPO、vivo、荣耀等智能终端厂商，不少用户规模也满足征求意见稿中的"用户超5 千万或月活超1千万"等条件，同样可能进入大型网络平台的序列。 "能力越大、责任越大"，这一原则贯穿了数字经济监管始终。该征求意见稿与9月份发布的《大型网络平台设立个人信 息保护监督委员会规定》一脉相承，均可被视为个人信息保护法第58条"守门人条款"以及《网络数据安全管理条例》 对大型平台规定的配套文件。 配套文件的规定，待正式版本发布后，将对上述平台的个人信息保护合规带来重要影响。 A I新贵进入大型平台监管射程？ 4年前，个人信息保护法正式实施。其中第58条创设了"守门人"制度：对于提供重要互联网平台服务、拥有巨大用户数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.8 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 12% [1][10] - The company faced a significant impairment loss of approximately 16 billion yuan due to the rapid enhancement of high-performance computing capabilities, which is expected to mark a low point for profit margins, with future improvements anticipated [1][10] - Advertising revenue continued to be under pressure, declining 18% year-on-year to 15.3 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of Baidu's core revenue. The company is accelerating its transition to AI search, with 70% of search result pages now containing AI-generated content [2][16] - AI new business revenue reached 10 billion yuan, with subscription revenue from AI high-performance computing facilities growing by 128% year-on-year. The AI business is divided into three segments: intelligent cloud infrastructure, AI applications, and AI-native marketing services [3][25] Financial Performance and Forecast - For the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, the adjusted net profit is projected to be 19.6 billion yuan, 21.6 billion yuan, and 24.6 billion yuan, respectively, with downward adjustments of 7%, 11%, and 12% [29] - The company expects to see a gradual improvement in profit margins as resource utilization increases [3][25] - The financial forecast indicates a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with an estimated total revenue of 130.4 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [5][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.8 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 12% [1][10] - The company experienced a significant impairment loss of approximately 16 billion yuan due to the rapid enhancement of high-performance computing capabilities, which is expected to mark a low point for profit margins, with future improvements anticipated [1][10] - Advertising revenue faced pressure, declining 18% year-on-year to 15.3 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of Baidu's core revenue. The company is accelerating its transition to AI search, with 70% of search result pages now containing AI-generated content [2][16] Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's AI new business revenue reached 10 billion yuan, with AI high-performance computing facility subscription revenue increasing by 128% year-on-year. The AI business is divided into three segments: 1. Intelligent Cloud Infrastructure: Revenue of 4.2 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year 2. AI Applications: Revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year 3. AI Native Marketing Services: Revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, a strong growth of 262% year-on-year, representing 18% of Baidu's core online marketing revenue [3][25] - The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 19.6 billion, 21.6 billion, and 24.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a downward adjustment of 7%, 11%, and 12% [29] Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts for Baidu Group indicate a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with total revenue projected at 130.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit is expected to drop to 19.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.4% [5][33] - Key financial metrics include an adjusted EPS of 7.13 yuan for 2025 and a projected P/E ratio of 14.9 [5][33]

（原标题：两部门拟明确"守门人"认定标准，AI新贵们也入围了？） 21世纪经济报道记者 王俊 章驰 一批平台即将成为你的个人信息"守门人"。 11月22日，国家互联网信息办公室、公安部发布《大型网络平台个人信息保护规定（征求意见稿）》（以下简称"征求意见稿"），明确了对大型 网络平台的认定标准，以及应履行的个人信息保护义务。 根据征求意见稿，除却阿里、腾讯、蚂蚁、字节跳动、百度、微博、小红书等互联网平台，DeepSeek、MiniMax、Kimi等迅速增长的AI公司，以 及OPPO、vivo、荣耀等智能终端厂商，不少用户规模也满足征求意见稿中的"用户超5千万或月活超1千万"等条件，同样可能进入大型网络平台 的序列。 "能力越大、责任越大"，这一原则贯穿了数字经济监管始终。该征求意见稿与9月份发布的《大型网络平台设立个人信息保护监督委员会规定》一 脉相承，均可被视为个人信息保护法第58条"守门人条款"以及《网络数据安全管理条例》对大型平台规定的配套文件。 配套文件的规定，待正式版本发布后，将对上述平台的个人信息保护合规带来重要影响。 AI新贵进入大型平台监管射程？ 4年前，个人信息保护法正式实施。其中第58条创 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights & Investment Recommendations - Unity and Epic Games announced a strategic partnership to create an open and interoperable ecosystem for game engines, allowing developers to publish Unity games on the Fortnite platform with over 500 million registered accounts, enhancing user reach and commercialization efficiency [2][21] - NVIDIA's quarterly performance exceeded expectations, with data center revenue growing by 289% year-on-year, reflecting strong demand for AI infrastructure [3][22] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in leading internet companies in Hong Kong, the gaming industry, and the film and cultural tourism sectors, driven by consumption policies and technological empowerment [3][22] Sub-industry Data Film Industry - The top three films by box office this week are "Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle" with 134.67 million yuan (42.9% market share), "Wild Era" with 75.67 million yuan (24.1%), and "Now You See Me 3" with 55.44 million yuan (17.7%) [23][24] Gaming Industry - The top three iOS games by revenue are "Teamfight Tactics," "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin," and "Honor of Kings," while the top three Android games are "Heart Town," "Sword and Magic Legend," and "My Leisure Time" [25] TV Series Industry - The top three TV series by broadcasting index are "Tang Dynasty Ghost Stories: Chang'an," "Four Happiness," and "Phoenix Platform," with indices of 85.5, 82.4, and 81.8 respectively [26][27] Variety Shows & Animation - The top variety show is "Now Departing Season 3" with a broadcasting index of 82.4, followed by "Wonderful Night Season 2" and "Flowers and Youth Together" [28][29] - The top three animated shows by viewership index are "Xian Ni" with 212.8, "Happy Hammer" with 191.6, and "Swallowing the Starry Sky" with 187.2 [30]

Core Insights - Baidu Group reported a revenue of approximately 31.17 billion yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 5% [1] - The company's non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was 3.77 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of approximately 41.25% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's core business generated revenue of 24.66 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6% [1] - iQIYI's revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year [1] - Online marketing revenue decreased by 18% year-on-year, while non-online marketing revenue grew by 21% [1] Online Marketing Performance - The online marketing revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately 15.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18% [2] - Baidu is advancing AI transformation in its search services, with about 70% of mobile search result pages containing AI-generated content as of October 2025 [2] - AI-native marketing services generated revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 262% [2] Cloud Services Growth - Baidu is accelerating the development of enterprise AI-native applications, with related revenue growing rapidly [2] - The AI application revenue reached 2.6 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [2] - Intelligent cloud infrastructure revenue was 4.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [2] - Subscription revenue from AI high-performance computing facilities increased by 128% year-on-year [2] Autonomous Driving Expansion - Baidu's autonomous driving service, "Luobo Kuaipao," has expanded globally, covering 22 cities as of October 2025 [3] - The service achieved an average of over 250,000 fully autonomous driving orders per week [3] - In mainland China, the service has achieved 100% fully autonomous operation in all operational cities [3] - Strategic partnerships have been established in Switzerland and Abu Dhabi to enhance service offerings [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is one of the few globally providing a full-stack AI solution, with unique breadth and depth in AI capabilities [4] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 130.2 billion, 136.8 billion, and 145.4 billion yuan, respectively [4] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for the same period are 19.2 billion, 20.1 billion, and 22.7 billion yuan, with corresponding non-GAAP EPS of 6.99, 7.29, and 8.26 yuan [4] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with non-GAAP P/E ratios of 14.9, 14.3, and 12.6x for the respective years [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth of AIGC products globally, with a focus on the fastest-growing products in October 2025, showcasing a diverse range of applications and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Global AIGC Product Growth - The global AIGC product growth leaderboard for October 2025 shows that video generation and multifunctional platforms are leading the growth, with Meta AI achieving a remarkable growth rate of 105.15% [2][5]. - Other notable products include xAI (46.97%) and PLAN by ixigo (44.12%), indicating a strong performance in the AI-driven content generation sector [2][5]. - The top ten products feature significant contributions from video generation tools (VIGGLE, Runway) and AI search engines (Perplexity), reflecting a diverse growth landscape [2][5]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. remains the dominant market, with 70% of the products listed being popular in this region, while emerging markets like India are also showing potential with products like PLAN by ixigo and Perplexity [3][4]. - The growth dynamics indicate a shift from a focus on educational tools to a broader range of applications driven by multimedia content generation and large AI platforms [5][6]. Key Characteristics of Growth 1. **Video Generation and Large Platforms as Growth Engines**: The growth is primarily driven by major players in video generation and multifunctional platforms, indicating a shift in consumer demand towards these technologies [4][5]. 2. **Sustained Demand for Practical Tools**: There is a strong market demand for practical tools, with products like translation tools (Caiyun) and voice-to-text tools (TurboScribe) showing growth rates exceeding 30%, highlighting the need for AI integration in specific workflows [6][7]. 3. **Significant Growth Disparities Between China and the U.S.**: The top ten products are predominantly from the U.S., with seven products listed, while Chinese products like MaxAI.me (35.06%) show reliance on the domestic market, contrasting with the global appeal of U.S. products [7][8]. Domestic AIGC Product Growth - In the domestic market, translation tools like Caiyun lead with a growth rate of 38.77%, followed by iFlytek's chatbot and Baidu's Orange AI, indicating strong performance in the translation and AI chatbot sectors [9][10]. - The growth of Baidu's ecosystem products reflects a collaborative advantage, although their performance is heavily reliant on the U.S. market [11][12]. Emerging Trends 1. **Practical Lightweight Tools Gaining Popularity**: Tools focusing on high-frequency, user-friendly needs, such as Caiyun and video editing tools, are preferred, indicating a shift towards practical solutions [12][13]. 2. **Divergence in Domestic and International Market Performance**: Many domestic products show a strong user base in the U.S., suggesting a dependency on international markets, which may pose risks for future growth [13].

Core Insights - The smart glasses market, including XR and AI glasses, is experiencing strong growth driven by major tech companies like Baidu, Alibaba, and Xiaomi accelerating their investments and product launches [1][2] - IDC predicts that by 2025, the global shipment of smart glasses will reach 12.8 million units, with China leading the market [3][4] Market Growth - Baidu has re-entered the smart glasses market with the launch of its Xiaodu AI Glass Pro, featuring multiple AI functionalities [2] - Tmall reports a 2500% year-on-year increase in sales for AI glasses, while JD.com indicates a 346% increase during the "Double 11" shopping festival [2] - CINNO Research notes that the AR/VR industry secured approximately 5.5 billion yuan in funding in Q3 2025, driven by new product launches and cost optimizations [2] Technological Advancements - The integration of AI and AR is seen as a key driver for the adoption of smart glasses, with IDC forecasting significant growth in the Chinese market [3][4] - The cost structure of smart glasses is heavily influenced by hardware components, which account for 80-85% of total costs, with optical and display modules being the most significant cost drivers [4] Industry Trends - Companies are focusing on Micro LED technology for its advantages in high pixel density and low power consumption, which is essential for near-eye displays [6][7] - Liard is actively pursuing both B2B and B2C markets for AR glasses, leveraging its expertise in Micro LED technology [7] Challenges - Despite advancements, the Micro LED technology still faces challenges related to cost, efficiency, and full-color capabilities [8] - The industry is shifting focus from technical specifications to user experience, emphasizing the importance of integrating AI capabilities into smart glasses [9]