机构：东吴证券 研究员：张良卫/郭若娜 投资要点 盈利预测与投资评级：我们看好AI 给公司云业务带来新的发展机遇，但考虑到搜索业务竞争不确定 性，我们将公司2025-2027 年nongaap 净利润预测从254/273/288 亿元下调至230/244/264 亿元，对应2025 年Non-GAAPPE 为9 倍，公司AI 业务进展较好，且持续回购体现注重股东回报，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：主业竞争风险，技术发展不及预期风险，经济恢复不及预期。 广告业务：AI 智能体进展积极，期待生态AI 改造潜力。2025Q1 百度核心收入 255 亿元，同比增长 7%，好于彭博一致预期，其中在线营销收入为人民币 160 亿元，同比减少 6%。Q1 公司对移动生态系 统加速搜索AI 转型，同时继续提高变现效率。3 月，超过 2.9 万家广告主通过智能体进行日常广告支 出，应用领域涵盖医疗保健、教育、生活服务、B2B、房地产和包括法律服务在内的商业服务，智能体 为广告主带来的收入同比增长 30倍，占百度核心在线营销收入的9%。我们认为短期广告主投放意愿仍 待修复，效率更高的AI 工具有望为公司广告业务带动增量，百度应用 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 百度集团-SW（09888.HK） 2025Q1 业绩点评：短期 AI 改造生态影响广 告收入，云业务趋势向好 买入（维持） | [盈利预测与估值 Table_EPS] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 134,598 | 133,125 | 134,638 | 141,814 | 148,539 | | 同比（%） | 8.83 | (1.09) | 1.14 | 5.33 | 4.74 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 20,315 | 23,760 | 22,112 | 22,114 | 23,990 | | 同比（%） | 168.75 | 16.96 | (6.93) | 0.01 | 8.48 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 28,747 | 27,002 | 23,046 | 24,364 | 26,373 | | 同比（%） | 39.01 | (6.07) | (14.65) ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 百度集团-SW（09888.HK） 2025Q1 业绩点评：短期 AI 改造生态影响广 告收入，云业务趋势向好 买入（维持） | [盈利预测与估值 Table_EPS] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 134,598 | 133,125 | 134,638 | 141,814 | 148,539 | | 同比（%） | 8.83 | (1.09) | 1.14 | 5.33 | 4.74 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 20,315 | 23,760 | 22,112 | 22,114 | 23,990 | | 同比（%） | 168.75 | 16.96 | (6.93) | 0.01 | 8.48 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 28,747 | 27,002 | 23,046 | 24,364 | 26,373 | | 同比（%） | 39.01 | (6.07) | (14.65) ...

Core Insights - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q1 2025 reached 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, exceeding expectations primarily due to strong growth in AI cloud revenue [1] - Non-GAAP net profit was 6.5 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 19.9%, which is a decline of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to pressure on the relatively high-margin advertising business [1] - The proportion of AI cloud revenue in Baidu's core income increased by 6.5 percentage points year-on-year to 26.1%, while advertising revenue's share decreased by 8.7 percentage points [1] Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's core revenue grew by 7.0% year-on-year to 25.5 billion yuan, driven by better-than-expected AI cloud revenue [1] - Advertising revenue fell by 6.1% year-on-year to 16 billion yuan, impacted by moderate demand from advertisers and the effects of AI search transformation [1] - Non-advertising revenue increased by 39.6% year-on-year to 9.5 billion yuan, with AI cloud revenue growing by 42% year-on-year to 6.7 billion yuan [1] AI Transformation and User Engagement - In April, 35% of Baidu's search results included AI-generated content, up from 22% in January, indicating a proactive approach to AI transformation in search [2] - Baidu's app reached 724 million monthly active users in March, a year-on-year increase of 7%, suggesting improved user experience [2] - The "Agent" feature is becoming a significant part of Baidu's advertising business, with related revenue growing 30 times year-on-year in Q1 2025, accounting for 9% of core advertising revenue [2] Global Expansion and Order Growth - Baidu's "Luobo Kuaipao" service has expanded internationally, now operating in 15 cities with over 1,000 deployed vehicles, and saw a 75% year-on-year increase in order volume to 1.4 million in Q1 2025 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 down by 6.8%, 5.7%, and 3.6% respectively, primarily due to downward revisions in high-margin advertising revenue expectations [3] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at $102.2, down from a previous $110.9, and HK$99.5, down from HK$108.3 [3]

投资建议：我们看好AI 技术对于搜索广告和智能云业务的潜在拉动作用，考虑宏观经济下公司广告收 入承压与Gen-AI 研发投入持续增长，预计2025-2027 年实现经调整归母净利润241/270/312 亿元（ 前值 为272/301/331），维持优于大市评级。 风险提示：宏观经济下行导致广告大盘增速不及预期的风险；AI 大模型实际应用效果不及预期的风 险；自动驾驶业务发展慢于预期的风险；政策风险等。 百度核心广告收入下滑6%，搜索结果中35%是由生成式AI 来实现的（环比+13pcts）。百度核心在线营 销收入为160 亿元，同比下滑6%。其中托管页收入占比47%，体现广告业务结构持续优化。代理为广告 主创造的收入同比增长30 倍，占核心在线营销收入9%。搜索AI 转型加速，有助于提升用户体验。 智能云加速至同比+42%，非GAAP 运营利润保持正值。智能云收入67 亿元，同比增长42%，非GAAP 运营利润率持续为正。GenAI 和基础模型相关收入实现三位数的同比增长，AI 云服务的需求显著增 加。 技术赋能与生态拓展并行，客户结构持续优化。千帆平台升级促进原生AI应用开发，无代码工具 MIAODA 正 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 20% [1][9]. - The core revenue from Baidu reached 25.5 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year. The online marketing revenue decreased by 6% to 16 billion yuan [1][11]. - The advertising business continues to face pressure, with a 6% decline in core advertising revenue. However, 35% of search results now include AI-generated content, reflecting a 13 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [1][12]. - The AI cloud segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 6.7 billion yuan, a 42% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for generative AI and foundational model training [2][20]. - The Apollo Go autonomous driving service provided over 1.4 million rides in Q1 2025, a 75% increase year-on-year, expanding its coverage to 15 cities [21]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 24.1 billion yuan, 27 billion yuan, and 31.2 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [25]. - Revenue projections for the years 2025 to 2027 are 135.7 billion yuan, 143.6 billion yuan, and 152.3 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 1.9%, 5.9%, and 6.0% [4][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 20% [1][9]. - The core revenue from Baidu reached 25.5 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year. The online marketing revenue decreased by 6% to 16 billion yuan, but non-online marketing revenue grew by 40%, driven by the intelligent cloud business [1][11][12]. - The advertising business continues to face pressure, with a 6% decline in core advertising revenue. However, 35% of search results now include AI-generated content, indicating a shift towards AI integration [12][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Baidu's total revenue was 32.5 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit at 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% decline year-on-year. The adjusted net profit margin was 20% [1][9]. - The core business generated an adjusted net profit of 6.3 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 25% [1][9]. Business Segments - The core business revenue increased by 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue decreased by 9%. Online marketing revenue fell by 6%, but non-online marketing revenue surged by 40%, primarily due to the growth in intelligent cloud services [11][12]. - The intelligent cloud revenue reached 6.7 billion yuan, marking a 42% year-on-year increase, driven by the rising demand for generative AI and foundational model training [20][21]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that AI technology will significantly boost both search advertising and intelligent cloud business. The adjusted net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 24.1 billion, 27 billion, and 31.2 billion yuan, respectively [25][27].

证券研究报告 百度集团-SW (9888 HK/BIDU US) 搜索龙头迈步转型 AI 云厂商 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 22 日│中国香港/美国 | 互联网 | 1Q25 百度集团总收入 325 亿元，同比+3.0 %（VA 一致预期：-1.9%，口 径下同），超预期主因 AI 云收入增长强劲。非 GAAP 净利润 65 亿元，非 GAAP 净利率 19.9%（预期：16.5%），同比下降 2.3 pp，下滑主因相对较 高利润率的广告业务收入持续承压。1Q25 百度 AI 云占百度核心收入比例 同比提升 6.5pp 至 26.1%，而广告收入占比对应同比下滑 8.7pp。展望未来， 考虑到 AI 需求的强劲及广告业务的转型尚需时间，我们认为曾经的搜索龙 头或持续向 AI 云厂商转型。建议关注 AI 云强劲收入增速的持续性，核心广 告业务的收入增速修复节奏，以及 AI 对百度其余业务的赋能效果。"买入"。 百度核心：AI 云业务加速增长，印证国内 AI 需求强劲 1Q25 百度核心收入同比+7.0%至 255 ...

证券研究报告 百度集团-SW (9888 HK/BIDU US) 搜索龙头迈步转型 AI 云厂商 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 5 月 | 22 日│中国香港/美国 | 互联网 | | 9888 HK | BIDU US | | --- | --- | | 买入(维持) 投资评级： | 买入(维持) | | 目标价： 港币：99.50 | 美元：102.20 | | 研究员 | 夏路路 | | SAC No. S0570523100002 | xialulu@htsc.com | | SFC No. BTP154 | +(852) 3658 6000 | | 研究员 | 侯杰 | | SAC No. S0570523010002 | houjie017864@htsc.com | | SFC No. BRI004 | +(86) 10 6321 1166 | | 联系人 | 曹卓铭 | | SAC No. S0570124020016 | caozhuoming@htsc.com | | SFC No. BUT776 | +( ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表 任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何 責任。 承董事會命 百度集團股份有限公司 董事長兼首席執行官 李彥宏先生 香港，2025年5月21日 於本公告日期，本公司董事會包括董事李彥宏先生；以及獨立董事丁健先生、楊元慶先生、符績勛先生、許冉女士 及劉曉丹女士。 1 百度公佈2025年第一季度業績 根據不同投票權架構，我們的股本包括A類普通股及B類普通股。對於提呈本公司股東大會投票的所有事宜，A類 普通股持有人每股可投1票，而B類普通股持有人則每股可投10票。股東及有意投資者務請留意投資不同投票權架 構公司的潛在風險。我們的美國存託股（每股美國存託股代表八股A類普通股）於美國納斯達克上市，股份代碼為 BIDU 。 Baidu, Inc. 百度集團股份有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） （股份代號：9888（港元櫃台）及89888（人民幣櫃台）） 2025 年第一季度業績公告 我們謹此公告截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日 止 ...