2025 年 1 月 23 日 公司研究 广告仍承压期待触底回升，AI 商业化改造进行时 ——百度集团-SW（9888.HK）24Q4 业绩前瞻 要点 业绩前瞻：我们预计百度集团 24Q4 总收入同比下降 4.5%至 333.7 亿元，百 度核心总收入同比下降 2.5%至 267.9 亿元。我们预计百度集团 24Q4 核心非 GAAP 下经营利润 44.1 亿元，同比下降 28.9%，经营利润率 16.5%；百度集 团 24Q4 非 GAAP 净利润 39.9 亿元，净利率 12.0%。利润短期承压部分因主 营广告业务受 AI 改造和宏观较弱复苏影响，及极越退出带来的一次性影响。 1、在线营销业务：Q4 广告业务仍承压，期待触底后 AI 商业化助力 25 年逐 步企稳回升。我们预计 24Q4 百度核心收入 267.9 亿元，同比下降 2.5%。其 中在线营销服务同比下降 8.9%至 174.8 亿元，短期持续受限于宏观环境较弱 趋势及生成式 AI 对用户搜索的改造进展，截至 24Q3 百度超 20%的搜索结果 页面已融入 AI 生成内容。后续广告业务有望逐步回升主要系对 AI 问答、AI 搜索商业化变现模式的 ...

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888 HK/BIDU US) [6] Core Views - Baidu's revenue growth in 4Q24 is expected to face short-term pressure due to a mild macroeconomic environment, AI-driven business transformation, and the exit of the Jiyue business [1] - Baidu Core 4Q24 revenue is projected to decline by 5.1% YoY to RMB 26.08 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit at RMB 4.15 billion, reflecting a 6.6pp YoY decline in non-GAAP operating margin [1] - Key catalysts for future valuation include: 1) AI-driven improvements in search advertising, 2) strong growth in AI cloud revenue, 3) faster-than-expected expansion of the Apollo Go business, and 4) stronger-than-expected shareholder return initiatives [1] Financial Forecasts - Baidu Core 4Q24 advertising revenue is expected to decline by 8.6% YoY to RMB 17.51 billion, driven by reduced ad spending in sectors like real estate, transportation, and healthcare [2] - AI cloud revenue is projected to grow 14.0% YoY to RMB 6.48 billion, driven by increased demand for GPU-related AI cloud services [2] - The exit of the Jiyue business is expected to negatively impact Baidu Core's revenue and adjusted operating profit by RMB 3 billion and RMB 900 million, respectively, in 4Q24 [2] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024/2025/2026 are revised to RMB 24.6/27.2/30.0 billion, reflecting downward adjustments in iQiyi and Jiyue-related revenue forecasts [3][11] Valuation and Target Price - The SOTP-based target price for Baidu's US shares is adjusted to USD 115.4 (from USD 119.8), and for HK shares to HKD 112.3 (from HKD 116.4) [3][16] - The new target price implies 11.3x and 10.3x 2025/2026E non-GAAP PE, respectively [3] Segment Valuation - Baidu Core advertising business is valued at USD 78.1 per ADS (HKD 76.0 per share), based on 8.0x 2025E PE, reflecting slower-than-expected AI-driven ad revenue growth [16] - Baidu AI Cloud is valued at USD 27.7 per ADS (HKD 27.0 per share), based on 3.0x 2025E PS, reflecting slower-than-expected demand for AI cloud services [16] - iQiyi and other investments are valued at USD 9.6 per ADS (HKD 9.3 per share), with a 30% holding discount applied [16] Key Financial Metrics - Baidu's 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 131.5 billion, a 2.3% YoY decline, with adjusted net profit of RMB 24.6 billion, down 14.3% YoY [5][11] - Non-GAAP operating margin for Baidu Core is expected to decline to 15.9% in 4Q24, down from 22.5% in 4Q23 [14] - Baidu's 2024E adjusted ROE is forecasted at 9.25%, down from 11.86% in 2023 [5] Industry Comparison - Baidu's 2025E PE of 11.3x is below the average of 12.9x for online advertising peers like Alibaba, Tencent, and Google [18] - Baidu AI Cloud's 2025E PS of 3.0x is significantly lower than the average of 7.4x for cloud and AI peers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888) with a target price of HKD 137 [1] Core Views - Baidu's Q3 2024 total revenue was RMB 33.6 billion, down 3% YoY, with Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 5.9 billion, down 19% YoY [1] - Baidu Core revenue was RMB 26.5 billion, with online marketing revenue at RMB 18.8 billion, down 4% YoY due to macroeconomic challenges [1] - Non-online marketing revenue grew 12% YoY to RMB 7.7 billion, driven by AI Cloud, which contributed RMB 4.9 billion, up 11% YoY [1] - AI revenue accounted for 11% of total AI Cloud revenue, with iQIYI revenue at RMB 7.2 billion, down 10% YoY [1] - The company's strong technical advantages in AI infrastructure are expected to drive further growth in AI Cloud revenue [1] AI Cloud & ERNIE - Baidu expanded its ERNIE series with two enhanced lightweight models, Speed Pro and Lite Pro [1] - ERNIE processed approximately 1.5 billion API calls daily in November, up from 600 million in August, indicating strong market adoption [1] - ERNIE Agent's daily conversations reached 15 million, with monthly active users at 704 million, up 6% YoY [1] - AI-generated content in search results increased from 18% to 20%, with AI features covering nearly 70% of Baidu App's monthly active users [1] Profitability - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 7 billion, with an operating margin of 26% [1] - The company expects continued improvement in operating margins as user behavior on Baidu Search improves [1] Autonomous Driving - Baidu's autonomous driving service, Apollo Go, provided approximately 988,000 rides in Q3 2024, up 20% YoY [1] - As of October 28, 2024, Apollo Go has completed over 8 million rides, with the sixth-generation autonomous vehicle, Apollo RT6, priced competitively below USD 30,000 [1] Investment Recommendation - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for FY2024-2026 to RMB 1338/1476/1641 billion, with Non-GAAP operating profit adjusted to RMB 274/308/342 billion [1] - The target price of HKD 137 is based on a SOTP valuation, assigning 8x P/E for advertising, 3x P/S for cloud business, and 14x P/E for iQIYI's non-advertising revenue [1] - The "Buy" rating is maintained due to Baidu's ongoing AI transformation and investments in AI Cloud and autonomous driving [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Baidu Group-SW (09888) with a target price of HKD 90 per share, implying a 12% upside potential [10] Core Views - Baidu's AI-driven intelligent cloud business is experiencing high growth, with AI applications and autonomous driving accelerating their market penetration [3] - The domestic internet cloud business has passed its low point, and AI is driving revenue growth in both cloud and advertising sectors [3] - Baidu's AI capabilities, particularly in natural language processing (NLP), are leading in the Chinese market, with daily calls to the Wenxin large model exceeding 1.5 billion, a 30x increase from a year ago [4] - Autonomous driving services, such as "Luobo Kuaipao," are expanding, with 100% unmanned services now available in Wuhan and other cities [5] - Despite macroeconomic pressures, Baidu's core online marketing revenue remains stable, supported by a robust user base, with Baidu APP's MAU reaching 704 million in 3Q24 [5] Financial Projections - Baidu Group's revenue is expected to be RMB 133.9 billion, RMB 140.6 billion, and RMB 148.9 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of -1%, 5%, and 6% [6] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 26.4 billion, RMB 28.1 billion, and RMB 31.5 billion for the same periods, with growth rates of -8%, 6%, and 12% [6] - The intelligent cloud business is expected to grow rapidly, with revenues of RMB 21.9 billion, RMB 25.2 billion, and RMB 29.0 billion for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 17%, 15%, and 15% [11] AI and Cloud Business - Baidu's AI framework is robust, with significant advancements in NLP and generative AI, driving the intelligent cloud business [4] - The intelligent cloud business accounted for 19% of Baidu's core revenue in 3Q24, up from 4% in 2018, with AI-related revenue contributing 11% in 3Q24 [4][5] - Baidu's AI applications are accelerating, with the 2024 Baidu World Conference focusing on AI application deployment, including the release of iRAG technology, a no-code tool "Miaoda," and AI-powered glasses [4] Autonomous Driving - Baidu's autonomous driving business, including "Luobo Kuaipao" and Apollo ADFM, is making significant progress, with full unmanned services now operational in multiple cities [5] - The company has partnered with Geely to produce smart electric vehicles, with the JiYue 001 and JiYue 007 models showing strong sales growth [5] Online Marketing - Baidu's core online marketing revenue is under pressure due to macroeconomic factors and increased competition in the online advertising space, with a projected revenue decline of 2% in 2024 [5][11] - Despite these challenges, Baidu's user base remains strong, with Baidu APP's MAU reaching 704 million in 3Q24, up 6% year-on-year [5] Industry Context - The domestic public cloud market has slowed since 2021, but AI is expected to be a key driver for growth in the cloud business for internet companies [34] - Baidu's AI capabilities, including its large models and generative AI, are positioning it as a leader in the AI cloud era, with significant advantages in data, algorithms, and computing power [34]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - 2024Q3 revenue met market expectations, while adjusted net profit fell short of expectations [2] - Advertising business remains under pressure, but generative AI continues to transform the ecosystem [3] - Non-advertising business: Generative AI drives growth in cloud computing [4] - Increased customer acquisition and cloud-related costs were partially offset by expense control [5] Financial Performance - 2024Q3 revenue was RMB 33.6 billion, down 3% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit was RMB 7 billion, down 8% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 5.9 billion, down 19% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus [2] - Share repurchase amount since 2024Q3 was USD 161 million, with cumulative repurchase under the 2023 plan reaching approximately USD 1.4 billion [2] Advertising Business - 2024Q3 Baidu Core revenue was RMB 26.5 billion, flat YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus [3] - Online marketing revenue was RMB 18.8 billion, down 4% YoY [3] - Over 20% of search results now include generative AI content, up from 18% in Q2 [3] - Advertising business is expected to remain weak in Q4, but generative AI is expected to have a positive impact in the medium to long term [3] Non-Advertising Business - Cloud revenue grew 11% YoY in 2024Q3, driven by generative AI [4] - Daily API calls for the Wenxin series models reached 1.5 billion in November 2024, up from 600 million in August [4] - AI accounted for 11% of cloud revenue in 2024Q3, up from 4.8% in 23Q4 [4] - Autonomous driving service "Luobo Kuaipao" provided 988,000 orders in Q3, up 20% YoY [4] - Fully autonomous orders accounted for over 70% of total orders nationwide, increasing to 80% in October 2024 [4] Cost and Expense Management - Baidu Core non-GAAP gross margin was 59.1% in 2024Q3, down 1.4 percentage points YoY [5] - Baidu Core non-GAAP sales and administrative expenses were RMB 4.7 billion, accounting for 17.8% of Baidu Core revenue, up 0.8 percentage points YoY [5] - Baidu Core non-GAAP R&D expenses were RMB 4.3 billion, accounting for 16.4% of Baidu Core revenue, down 2.1 percentage points YoY [5] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue is forecasted at RMB 132.4 billion, down 1.67% YoY [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company is forecasted at RMB 24.4 billion, up 20.17% YoY [1] - 2024E Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted at RMB 27.1 billion, down 5.78% YoY [1] - 2024E EPS is forecasted at RMB 8.70, with a P/E ratio of 8.60 [1] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 80.45 [8] - 52-week low/high (HKD): 75.20/119.90 [8] - Price-to-book ratio: 0.87 [8] - Market capitalization (HKD million): 183,461.35 [8] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E Non-GAAP EPS (RMB): 8.70 [18] - 2024E ROE: 9.13% [18] - 2024E gross margin: 50.16% [18] - 2024E net profit margin: 18.45% [18] - 2024E debt-to-asset ratio: 31.84% [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu with a target price of HKD 124.15 [5][11] Core Views - Baidu's total revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 33.56 billion (YoY -2.6%), in line with Bloomberg expectations, while adjusted net profit was RMB 5.89 billion (YoY -19%) [3] - Core advertising revenue remains under pressure, with ad revenue at RMB 18.8 billion (YoY -4.6%), while non-marketing revenue grew 12.4% YoY to RMB 7.7 billion, driven by intelligent cloud business [3] - Baidu's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 51.1% (YoY -1.6pct), with core gross margin at 58.8% (YoY -1.3pct) [3] - AI capabilities are a long-term strategic focus, with Ernie Bot daily calls reaching 1.5 billion and user base at 430 million [3] - Intelligent driving commercialization is progressing, with RoboTaxi completing 988,000 rides in Q3 2024 (YoY +20%) and cumulative rides exceeding 8 million as of October 28, 2024 [3] Financial Performance - Baidu's core revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 26.5 billion (YoY -0.2%), slightly better than Bloomberg's expectation of -0.8% YoY [3] - Adjusted operating profit margin for Baidu core was 25.1% in Q3 2024 (YoY +0pct, QoQ -1.1pct) [3] - For 2024E, Baidu's revenue is expected to be RMB 131.9 billion (YoY -2.0%), with adjusted net profit of RMB 26.5 billion [11] - The company's 2024E adjusted PE is maintained at 12x, implying a market cap of RMB 317.7 billion [11] AI and Cloud Business - Ernie Bot ecosystem has attracted 150,000 enterprises and 800,000 developers, with PaddlePaddle ecosystem serving 430,000 enterprises and creating 1.01 million models [3] - Over 60% of central state-owned enterprises and large private enterprises have chosen Baidu Intelligent Cloud for AI innovation [3] - Cloud business revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 4.922 billion (YoY +11.0%), contributing significantly to non-marketing revenue growth [10] Intelligent Driving - RoboTaxi service completed 988,000 rides in Q3 2024 (YoY +20%), with cumulative rides exceeding 8 million as of October 28, 2024 [3] - The sixth-generation autonomous vehicle RT6 has been deployed in multiple cities [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888 HK) [6] Core Views - Baidu's core advertising and iQIYI businesses are under short-term pressure, with 2024-2026 non-GAAP net profit forecasts revised downward to 26 1/27 2/29 8 billion yuan (previously 26 8/28 7/31 9 billion yuan), representing year-on-year growth rates of -9 3%/4 4%/9 4% [6] - The adjusted diluted EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 9 0/9 3/10 0 yuan, with the current stock price of 76 65 HKD corresponding to 2024-2026 P/E ratios of 7 8/7 6/7 1 times [6] - Future growth is expected to be driven by macroeconomic recovery, AI product monetization, and the expansion of autonomous driving in key regions [6] Financial Performance - Baidu's 2024Q3 revenue declined by 3% year-on-year, in line with Bloomberg consensus expectations, while non-GAAP net profit fell 19% to 5 9 billion yuan, below the Bloomberg consensus of 6 2 billion yuan due to iQIYI's underperformance [7] - Baidu Core online marketing revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year in 2024Q3, underperforming the broader internet advertising market, which grew by 5 5% according to QuestMobile data [7] - AI and intelligent cloud revenue grew by 11% year-on-year in 2024Q3, with AI cloud accounting for approximately 11% of the total [7] - Autonomous driving platform Apollo Go saw a 20% year-on-year increase in ride volume in 2024Q3 [7] - iQIYI's revenue declined by 10% year-on-year in 2024Q3, with operating profit margin down by 6 percentage points [7] Business Outlook - Short-term advertising growth is pressured by weak SME client demand, increased competition, and the company's strategic shift towards AI-generated content [8] - AI is expected to enhance advertising monetization efficiency and drive cloud demand growth [8] - Autonomous driving business model validation is anticipated, with a focus on achieving breakeven in key regions [8] - AI cloud is projected to achieve higher steady-state profit margins compared to traditional businesses [8] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to decline by 1 6% in 2024, followed by growth of 5 7% and 5 2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to decrease by 9 3% in 2024, then grow by 4 4% and 9 4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [10] - Gross margin is projected to be 50 4% in 2024, improving to 51 2% in 2025 before declining to 42 7% in 2026 [10] - Net margin is expected to remain stable at around 19 7%-20 2% from 2024 to 2026 [10] - ROE is forecasted to decline from 10 7% in 2024 to 9 7% in 2026 [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888 HK) [4] Core Views - Baidu's total revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 33 5 billion, down 3% YoY, with adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 5 9 billion, down 19% YoY [2] - Baidu Core revenue remained flat YoY at RMB 26 5 billion, while iQIYI revenue decreased by 10% YoY to RMB 7 2 billion [2] - Baidu Core's advertising revenue declined by 5% YoY, with 20% of search results generated by AI (up from 18% in August) and 70% of MAUs using generative search [2] - AI and large language models (LLMs) contributed incremental revenue to the advertising system, with approximately 20,000 advertisers generating daily ad spend [2] - Baidu's intelligent cloud revenue grew by 11% YoY to RMB 5 billion, with AI contributing 11% of total intelligent cloud revenue [5] - Apollo Go provided approximately 988,000 rides in Q3 2024, a 20% YoY increase, with cumulative rides exceeding 8 million in October [5] Financial Performance - Baidu Group's adjusted net profit margin remained stable at 18%, with Baidu Core's adjusted net profit margin at 21% [2] - Baidu Core's online marketing revenue was RMB 18 8 billion, down 5% YoY, while non-online marketing revenue increased by 12% YoY to RMB 7 7 billion [8] - Baidu Core's adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 5 7 billion, down 18% YoY [8] - Baidu APP's MAUs reached 704 million in September 2024, a 6% YoY increase [16] AI and Cloud Business - AI model inference costs were optimized, with ERNIE processing 1 7 trillion tokens daily, up from 600 million in August [5] - The proportion of unmanned driving operations exceeded 70% nationwide in Q3 2024 and surpassed 80% in October, reaching 100% in Chongqing [5] - Baidu's intelligent cloud business maintained double-digit growth, with AI contributing 11% of total revenue [27] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 134 6 billion in 2023 to RMB 162 9 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 7 1% [3] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 28 6 billion in 2024, RMB 31 billion in 2025, and RMB 33 2 billion in 2026 [30] - The adjusted EPS is projected to increase from RMB 10 19 in 2024 to RMB 11 82 in 2026 [3] Valuation - The report assigns a fair value range of HKD 100 00 to HKD 120 00 for Baidu Group-SW [4] - The current share price is HKD 76 65, with a total market capitalization of HKD 215 02 billion [4]

AI 战略驱动应用爆发，读懂百度三季报 导语：一旦智能体生态成型，百度搜索将成为 AI 时代的"第一入口"。 作者：市值风云 App：观韬 11 月 21 日晚间，百度（BIDU.O，09888.HK）正式发布 2024 年三季报，单季 度营收 336 亿元，核心营收 265 亿元，核心净利润 75.4 亿元，同比增长 17%， 超市场预期。 在三季报中，百度还披露的文心大模型的日均调用量，15 亿次，相比去年 Q4 披露的 5000 万次，一年内增长近 30 倍。 百度创始人李彦宏在财报电话会上透露，百度将于 2025 年初发布文心大 模型的新版本。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|---------------------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | We ...

2024 年 11 月 21 日 来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 百度集团-SW （09888.HK） 买入（维持评级） 港股公司点评 证券研究报告 AI 驱动转型进行时，广告仍待改善 传媒与互联网组 分析师：许孟婕（执业 S1130522080003） xumengjie＠gjzq.com.cn 业绩简评 2024 年 11 月 21 日，公司披露 2024 年三季度业绩公告，2024Q3 公司实现收入 336 亿元，同比-3%，2024Q3 Non-GAAP 归母净利润 59 亿元，同比-19%。 经营分析 百度核心：广告业务仍待改善，智能云保持稳健增长，百度核心利 润保持增长。2024Q3 百度核心收入为 265 亿元，同比-0.29%，NonGAAP 归属于百度核心的净利润 75.4 亿元，同比+17%。在线营销收 入达到 188 亿元，同比-4%，宏观环境较弱对广告业务产生一定压 力，AI 对用户搜索的产品改造对短期商业化有一定影响。非在线 营销收入达到 77 亿元，同比+12%，主要由智能云业务带动。 文心大模型调用量持续增长，原生应用持续推进。文心大模型日 均 API 调用量达到 15 亿次，推 ...