YILI(600887) 长江证券·2024-11-11 03:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 89.039 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.868 billion yuan, up 15.87% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 8.509 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.65% [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the total revenue was 29.125 billion yuan, down 6.67% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.53% to 3.337 billion yuan, with a significant rise in net profit excluding non-recurring items by 19.86% to 3.184 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company has seen a narrowing decline in liquid milk and ice cream products, while milk powder maintains positive growth, indicating overall improvement [5][6]. - The gross profit margin improved due to a decrease in costs and reduced promotional expenses, with the net profit margin increasing by 2.58 percentage points to 12.21% for the first three quarters of 2024 [6][7]. - The company is expected to continue its recovery in Q4 2024, with potential improvements in revenue due to seasonal demand and inventory adjustments [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 89.039 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.59%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.868 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.87% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the total revenue was 29.125 billion yuan, down 6.67% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.53% to 3.337 billion yuan [4][5]. Product and Regional Performance - Revenue from liquid milk for the first three quarters was 57.524 billion yuan, down 12.09% year-on-year, while milk powder and dairy products generated 21.33 billion yuan, up 7.07% year-on-year [5]. - Revenue from major regions showed declines, with North China at 24.718 billion yuan (down 6.28%), South China at 22.247 billion yuan (down 8.21%), and Central China at 16.377 billion yuan (down 12.78%) [5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters improved to 35.03%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw milk costs and reduced promotional activities [6]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 11.46%, up 1.61 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued improvement in Q4 2024, with a potential stabilization in raw milk prices and a gradual recovery in dairy product demand [7]. - The forecasted EPS for 2024 and 2025 is 1.89 yuan and 1.80 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16 and 17 times [7].