Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) (603816) 长江证券·2024-11-11 03:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 138.01 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.59 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2% and 9% respectively. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 48.93 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.63 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7% and 20% respectively [3][4]. - Domestic demand is under pressure, but customized and functional sofas continue to grow. Export sales of sofas maintain a favorable trend, while the mattress segment is still adjusting. The company expects to narrow the decline in net profit after adjusting for foreign exchange disturbances in Q3, with continued improvement in export profitability despite domestic challenges [3][4][5]. - The government subsidy for the home furnishing sector is actively promoted, which is expected to boost overall demand and enhance the company's market share. The company is focusing on enhancing product strength and channel efficiency in the domestic market while improving quality and efficiency in exports [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 138.01 billion yuan, a net profit of 13.59 billion yuan, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 12.19 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -2%, -9%, and -11% respectively. In Q3 2024, the figures were 48.93 billion yuan, 4.63 billion yuan, and 4.38 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -7%, -20%, and -17% respectively [3][4]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 decreased by 4.0 percentage points, attributed to the structural impact of increased export proportion, scale reduction, and adjustments in domestic pricing strategies [4][5]. Market Strategy - The company is transitioning towards a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on integrating large stores and expanding the number of such stores, which has surpassed 300 in 2023. The company is also exploring targeted store formats and partnerships with local governments and e-commerce platforms to enhance market reach [3][4]. - The company anticipates that the ongoing government subsidies will accelerate demand recovery and improve market conditions, with expectations of benefiting significantly from these initiatives due to its leading position in the industry [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of approximately 18.5 billion yuan and 20.4 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 15x and 14x. If the dividend payout ratio remains at 56% as in 2023, the estimated dividend yield is about 3.7% [5][6].