KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 华创证券·2024-11-11 03:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai with a target price of 2,600 RMB [1] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai announced a mid-term dividend of 23.882 RMB per share, totaling 30 billion RMB, fulfilling its commitment to a 75% dividend payout ratio [1] - The company's dividend yield for 2024 is estimated at 3.2%, higher than the 10-year government bond yield and the cost of liabilities for insurance asset management, making it attractive for long-term investors [1] - The company has initiated a share buyback plan of 3-6 billion RMB, which is expected to support the stock price [1] - The report compares the current price of Moutai to a call option, suggesting limited downside and potential for valuation recovery with macroeconomic improvement [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 150.56 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 18.0% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 74.734 billion RMB in 2023, with a growth rate of 19.2% [2] - EPS for 2023 is forecasted at 59.49 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 27x [2] - Revenue growth for 2024 is projected at 16.0%, with net profit growth at 15.2% [2] Market Performance and Valuation - The current price of Moutai is 1,609.97 RMB, with a 12-month high of 1,791.50 RMB and a low of 1,261.00 RMB [4] - The company's market capitalization stands at 2.02 trillion RMB, with a P/B ratio of 9.4x [4] - The stock has shown a 23% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [5] Industry and Company Strategy - The company has responded quickly to price fluctuations in the market, with the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai stabilizing around 2,280 RMB after a brief dip [1] - Moutai is expected to achieve a 15% growth target for 2023, with a focus on balancing growth, inventory reduction, and price stability [1] - The company plans to expand its product offerings, including cultural collectibles and non-standard products, while strengthening traditional channels and exploring international markets [1] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 174.595 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 16.0% [2] - Net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 86.061 billion RMB, with an EPS of 68.51 RMB [2] - The P/E ratio for 2024 is forecasted at 24x, with a P/B ratio of 8.2x [2]