Semir(002563) 长江证券·2024-11-11 05:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 3.44 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 36.0% [3][4]. - The company is focusing on solidifying its foundation through comprehensive strategies, controlling discounts, and reducing inventory, which are showing positive results [5]. - The company anticipates a recovery in performance as channel inventory decreases and quality improves, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 being 1.16 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan respectively [5]. Revenue Analysis - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 3.44 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.2% year-on-year growth, outperforming overall market trends [3]. - Online channels performed better than offline, primarily due to weak foot traffic in physical stores, with growth in live-streaming driving online sales [3][4]. - The children's clothing segment outperformed casual wear, attributed to a faster store opening pace in the children's category [3]. Profitability Analysis - The gross margin in Q3 was 42.4%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, but still at a historical high due to improved online gross margins [4]. - The decline in net profit was mainly due to a 2.0 percentage point increase in operating expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses rising [4]. - The company faced a decrease in fair value gains and increased asset impairment losses, impacting profitability [4]. Operational Efficiency - As of Q3, inventory increased by 14.1% year-on-year to 4.17 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days accelerating by 24 days to 180 days [5]. - The company reported a negative net cash flow from operations in Q3, primarily due to increased cash payments for goods [5]. - Accounts payable increased by 1.1 billion yuan year-on-year, but the company maintains a strong cash position, indicating robust risk resistance [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance as inventory levels decrease and quality improves, with a potential for revenue growth from new store openings [5]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 suggest a positive trend, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 12, and 11 times [5].