KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) First Shanghai Securities·2024-11-11 06:32Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 1,850.00 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 15% from the current price of 1,609.97 CNY [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has announced a mid-term dividend of 23.882 CNY per share, totaling 30 billion CNY, which represents 72% of the expected mid-term profit for 2024. The annual cash dividend for 2024-2026 is planned to be no less than 75% of the net profit [2][4]. - The company's performance for Q1-Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenues and net profits of 1,208 billion CNY and 608 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.0% and 15.0% [2][3]. - The report highlights a slowdown in the growth of series liquor products, while the flagship Maotai liquor continues to show strong growth, primarily driven by non-standard products [3][4]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported total revenue of 127,554 million CNY, with a projected increase to 211,229 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1% [1][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2022 was 62,717 million CNY, expected to rise to 106,059 million CNY by 2026, with a CAGR of 10.6% [1][8]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) increased from 49.93 CNY in 2022 to a projected 84.43 CNY in 2026, with a corresponding decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 32.2 to 19.1 [1][8]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout, with a projected dividend per share of 63.3 CNY by 2026, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.9% [1][4]. - The report anticipates that the total cash dividend for 2025 will not be less than 719 billion CNY, based on the 75% payout ratio [4][6]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as an industry leader, with expectations of stable long-term growth and high shareholder returns, despite potential challenges in the external economic environment [4][6]. - The report notes that the company may take on more social responsibility to help alleviate supply-demand imbalances in the industry [4].