Focus Media(002027) 海通证券·2024-11-11 06:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady revenue growth, with total revenue of 9.26 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.97 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year [5][6] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the cyclical marketing sector, showing strong resilience and flexibility in its performance. The business primarily focuses on first- and second-tier cities, with significant growth potential in lower-tier cities and overseas markets [6][8] - The company maintains a high dividend expectation, with a dividend yield of 5.7% over the past 12 months [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 3.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, up 7.6% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter [5][6] - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 66.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 42.8%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue Forecast - The company expects total revenue for 2024-2026 to be 12.76 billion yuan, 13.53 billion yuan, and 14.36 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.2%, 6.0%, and 6.1% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 5.22 billion yuan, 5.76 billion yuan, and 6.22 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 8.2%, 10.2%, and 8.0% respectively [8][9] Valuation - The company is assigned a valuation range of 9.00 to 10.80 yuan per share based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 25-30 times for 2024, compared to a reference PE of 43 times for comparable companies [8][11]