CMES(601872) 长江证券·2024-11-11 07:29Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.06 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 870 million, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% [2][3]. - The oil transportation sector is under pressure, while the bulk shipping sector shows strong performance [3][4]. - The company has a diverse fleet that enhances resilience amid market fluctuations [5]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue contributions from different business segments are as follows: - Oil transportation: 2.02 billion, down 5.0% year-on-year - Bulk shipping: 2.11 billion, up 22.7% year-on-year - Container shipping: 1.33 billion, up 16.3% year-on-year - Roll-on/roll-off shipping: 410 million, down 18.9% year-on-year [2][4]. - Net profit contributions from these segments are: - Oil transportation: 390 million, down 27.7% year-on-year - Bulk shipping: 370 million, up 75.6% year-on-year - Container shipping: 230 million, up 32.8% year-on-year - Roll-on/roll-off shipping: 80 million, down 12.2% year-on-year [2][4]. Oil Transportation Analysis - The average TCE rate for VLCC in Q3 was 32,000 USD/day, a decrease of 29.4% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a general market downturn [3]. - The company's time charter rates remained stable, and the TCE achieved in the spot market was on par with the same period last year [3]. - The oil transportation fleet's revenue decreased by 16.2% quarter-on-quarter, slightly better than the drop in rates, but net profit fell by 52.1% due to increased repair costs and depreciation [3]. Bulk Shipping Performance - The bulk shipping sector benefited from strong demand for imports, particularly for grain and coal, with import volumes increasing by 14.4% and 11.1% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - The BDI index averaged 1870 points in Q3, up 56.7% year-on-year, indicating a robust market for dry bulk shipping [4]. - The company's bulk shipping fleet achieved a revenue increase of 22.7% year-on-year to 2.11 billion, with net profit rising by 75.6% to 370 million [4]. Other Business Segments - Container shipping saw a revenue increase due to low base effects from the previous year, with net profit rising by 32.8% to 230 million [4]. - Roll-on/roll-off shipping faced challenges in the domestic market, contributing 80 million to net profit [4]. - The LNG business contributed 150 million to net profit, primarily from CLNG investment returns, remaining stable [4]. Future Outlook - The company has 80 vessels on order, including 6 VLCCs and 42 LNG carriers, representing 24.2% of its current capacity [5]. - The installation of scrubbers on over 60% of the fleet positions the company competitively in the market [5]. - The investment outlook remains positive, with expected revenues of 5.1 billion, 7.1 billion, and 8.1 billion for 2024-2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 11, 8, and 7 times [5].