CMSK(001979) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-11-11 08:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's sales scale has turned positive year-on-year, aided by the National Day holiday, indicating a recovery in sales [4] - The company maintains a leading position in the industry, with a focus on acquiring land in core cities and a sufficient supply of quality land reserves [4] - The company is expected to see a continuous increase in market share, with a forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 of 6.39 billion, 7.03 billion, and 7.44 billion yuan respectively [4] Sales Performance - In October 2024, the company achieved a signed sales amount of 22.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.42%, and a signed sales area of 917,700 square meters, up 5.18% year-on-year [5] - For the first ten months of 2024, the cumulative signed sales amount was 167.471 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.27% year-on-year, with a cumulative signed sales area of 7.3421 million square meters, down 26.94% year-on-year [5][10] - The average sales price in October 2024 was 24,299.88 yuan per square meter, an increase of 1.18% year-on-year [5] Land Acquisition Strategy - In October 2024, the company acquired two plots of land, focusing on core cities, with a total land area of 30,400 square meters and a total acquisition cost of 1.762 billion yuan [6] - The first plot is located in the Tongzhou District of Beijing, with a land area of 16,000 square meters and a total acquisition cost of 999.2 million yuan [13] - The second plot is in the New Territories of Hong Kong, with a land area of 14,400 square meters and a total acquisition cost of 770 million yuan [13] Financial Forecast - The company forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be 190.022 billion, 200.235 billion, and 207.165 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 8.6%, 5.4%, and 3.5% [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 0.71, 0.78, and 0.82 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.0, 15.5, and 14.6 [4][7]