中谷物流：行业至暗时刻已过，兼具韧性与弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the darkest moment for the industry has passed, showcasing resilience and elasticity. The domestic container throughput growth is gradually stabilizing and rebounding, with a bottoming out of freight rates. The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience and profit-generating capabilities by seeking foreign trade chartering during periods of domestic pressure [4][3] - The company reported a revenue of 8.44 billion and a net profit of 1.11 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.1% and 7.0% respectively. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 2.71 billion, down 14.1%, while the net profit increased by 16.4% to 0.35 billion [2][3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.44 billion, down 9.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.11 billion, down 7.0% year-on-year. In Q3, the revenue was 2.71 billion, down 14.1%, while the net profit was 0.35 billion, up 16.4% [2][3] Market Conditions - The PDCI composite index for domestic shipping prices fell by 12.9% year-on-year to 957 points in Q3, marking the second-lowest quarterly value since 2015. The report highlights that the domestic demand is still in a recovery phase, with container throughput at major domestic ports increasing by 8.0% year-on-year in July and August [2][3] External Trade and Non-Recurring Gains - The company has expanded its foreign trade chartering to offset domestic pressures, benefiting from increased chartering scale. The Q3 container ship rental index rose by 92.3% year-on-year, with specific vessel types seeing even higher increases [3] - Non-recurring gains in Q3 amounted to 0.17 billion, primarily from the sale of a vessel, while government subsidies decreased by 0.018 billion due to demand weakness in domestic shipping [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company possesses both operational resilience and upward elasticity, with a long-term dividend yield that is attractive. The company is expected to achieve profits of 1.72 billion, 1.85 billion, and 1.95 billion for 2024-2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.7, 9.9, and 9.4. The projected dividend payout ratio is not less than 60%, leading to dividend yields of 5.7%, 6.2%, and 6.5% [4]