各位尊敬的投资者下午好我是中芯证券交通运输行业的分析师曹一峰那今天我们主要来聊一聊我刚发布的这个中股物流的深度报告首先说一下我对这家公司的定位我把这家公司当成是一个有着比较强烈的弹性的一个高股匹的公司 目前交易的高股息其实主要是高速公路还有铁路标的为主到目前这个阶段其实对于常规的高股息各股市场的预期已经包括交易其实也已经都比较充分了但中国物流这家公司相对特殊一点因为它是一家航运公司就是搞内贸集装箱航运的 正常来说市场是不太把航运公司当作高股息标的因为航运公司它作为周期股普遍业绩的波动性是比较大但是如果你仔细关心中股会发现中股恰恰是基本满足了高股息公司的大部分条件 呃周五这家公司才有特点就是这个公司管理层非常优秀他踩周期点位的能力非常强所以你会发现他经常能够在这个产价最低点去把这个船给倒下他成本管控能力也很高所以你会发现行业好的时候中股是一律弹性挺强的然后行业差的时候他的利润率也能够维持这个还相对还不错的一个水平那同时这个公司分红意愿也非常强 公司现在市值是183个亿然后20年行业很好的时候他分了分红分20个亿然后战绩利润是73%23年的话行业没有那么好的他也分了15亿战绩利润88%左右这两年分红率都是非常高的 ...

上海中谷物流股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会会议资料 603565 中国·上海 二〇二五年四月 上海中谷物流股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会会议议程 一、会议时间、地点 （一）现场股东大会 日期、时间：2025 年 4 月 21 日（星期一）下午 14:30 地点：上海市浦东新区民生路 1188 号 18 楼会议室 （二）网络投票 网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票系统 网络投票起止时间：2025 年 4 月 21 日至 2025 年 4 月 21 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股东 大会召开当日的交易时间段，即 9:15-9:25,9:30-11:30，13:00-15:00；通过互联网投 票平台的投票时间为股东大会召开当日的 9:15-15:00。 二、会议召集人 上海中谷物流股份有限公司董事会 三、会议表决方式 现场投票和网络投票相结合 四、会议内容 （一）主持人宣布会议开始 （二）主持人报告会议出席情况 （三）主持人宣布提交本次会议审议的议案 1、 关于 2024 年度董事会工作报告的议案 2、 关于 2024 年度监事会工作报告的议案 3、 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to generate revenue of 11.26 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.84 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [2][5]. - The company has shifted its focus from domestic trade to a combination of domestic and foreign trade, enhancing its resilience through capacity leasing and demonstrating shareholder returns through high dividends [10]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 11.26 billion, down 9.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.84 billion, up 6.9% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.1 billion, up 6.2% year-on-year [2][5]. Business Performance - Domestic trade revenue is expected to decline significantly due to seasonal characteristics and decreased freight rates, with a projected revenue of 9.5 billion, down 15.2% year-on-year. The domestic freight rate index (PDCI) averaged 1103, down 12.3% year-on-year [10]. - The foreign trade sector is experiencing high demand, leading to increased charter rates, with the average charter rate for 4,400 TEU vessels rising by 90.2% year-on-year [10]. Cost Management and Efficiency - The company has managed to reduce operating costs by 10.4% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased fuel costs and an increase in the proportion of owned vessels from 69.8% in 2023 to 72.7% in 2024 [10]. - The company has also achieved a significant reduction in period expenses, down 49.2% year-on-year, through cost-cutting measures and increased dollar-denominated income from leasing operations [10]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see a rebound in domestic trade in 2025, with improved supply-demand dynamics. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.93 billion, 2.02 billion, and 2.15 billion, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.7, 11.1, and 10.5 [10]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a projected dividend payout ratio of 60%, leading to dividend yields of 5.1%, 5.4%, and 5.7% for 2025-2027 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Zhonggu Logistics (603565) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.84 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with a dividend payout ratio reaching 90%, making the dividend attractive [1] - The report highlights the strong performance in the foreign trade charter market, with rental rates for 4400 and 2500 TEU container ships increasing by 221% and 156% year-on-year, respectively [2] - The domestic shipping market is also showing signs of improvement, with the PDCI index averaging 1287 points in Q4 2024, up 9% year-on-year [2] Financial Summary - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 11.258 billion, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 1.835 billion, reflecting a growth of 6.9% [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.79 per share, corresponding to a dividend yield of 7.3% [8] - The financial forecast indicates a gradual recovery in revenue, with estimates of 11.312 billion in 2025 and 11.951 billion in 2026, alongside net profits of 1.846 billion and 1.937 billion, respectively [4][8] Future Outlook - The foreign trade charter market is expected to remain robust, with rental rates for container ships projected to continue increasing [8] - The domestic container transportation market is anticipated to grow by 5% to 7% in 2025, with a static capacity growth of 4% [8] - The report raises the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026, with net profit estimates of 18.5 billion and 19.4 billion, respectively, and introduces a new estimate for 2027 at 20 billion [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Zhonggu Logistics, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the near term [2][5]. Core Views - Zhonggu Logistics achieved a revenue of 11.258 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.835 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.88% [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in net profit, reaching 727 million yuan, up 38.3% year-on-year, driven by a rebound in domestic freight rates and an increase in foreign trade rental income [3]. - The company reported a non-recurring profit of 736 million yuan in 2024, up 7.9% from the previous year, primarily due to gains from the sale of vessels [4]. - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 was over 90%, with a total dividend of 1.66 billion yuan, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 11.258 billion yuan, down 9.49% from 2023, while net profit was 1.835 billion yuan, up 6.88% [12]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.772 billion, 1.883 billion, and 2.060 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84, 0.90, and 0.98 yuan [5][12]. - The financial expenses decreased significantly to -24 million yuan in 2024, compared to 127 million yuan in 2023, mainly due to increased interest income from US dollars [4]. Market Position and Outlook - Zhonggu Logistics is recognized as a leading domestic container logistics company in China, with a strong focus on domestic coastal container transportation [6]. - The report anticipates that domestic freight rates will stabilize and improve, while foreign trade rental income may continue to benefit from geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Zhonggu Logistics, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance in the near term [2][5]. Core Views - Zhonggu Logistics achieved a revenue of 11.258 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.49%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.835 billion yuan, an increase of 6.88% [3]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in net profit, reaching 727 million yuan, up 38.3% year-on-year, driven by a rebound in domestic freight rates and an increase in international freight rates [3]. - The company reported a non-recurring gain of 736 million yuan in 2024, primarily from the sale of vessels, which contributed to the overall profit increase [4]. - The dividend payout ratio exceeded 90%, with a total dividend of 1.66 billion yuan, reflecting the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders [5]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 11.258 billion yuan, down 9.49% from 2023, while net profit was 1.835 billion yuan, up 6.88% [12]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.772 billion, 1.883 billion, and 2.060 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.84, 0.90, and 0.98 yuan [5][12]. - The financial expenses decreased significantly to -24 million yuan in 2024, primarily due to increased interest income from US dollars [4]. Market Position and Outlook - Zhonggu Logistics is recognized as a leading domestic container logistics company in China, with a strong focus on domestic coastal container transportation [6]. - The report highlights that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in freight rates, particularly in the domestic market, while international freight rates may remain elevated due to geopolitical factors [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics [2][5][14] Core Insights - The company reported FY24 results that exceeded market expectations, with revenue of RMB 11.26 billion, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.835 billion, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year. The return on equity (ROE) reached 17.26% [3][12][13] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.79 per share for FY24, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 90.39% and a dividend yield of 8.3%, indicating strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns [5][12][13] - The company is optimistic about domestic and foreign trade prices in 2025, having increased the proportion of its foreign trade business, which has improved revenue per TEU and overall profitability [4][13] Financial Performance Summary - For FY24, the company achieved a total transportation volume of 11.29 million TEUs, a decline of 23.9% year-on-year. Revenue from water transport and land transport was RMB 9.0 billion and RMB 2.24 billion, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -11.0% and -3.7% [4][8] - The overall gross profit margin for FY24 was 15.15%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. Despite a decline in domestic freight rates, the company shifted capacity to the more favorable foreign trade sector, enhancing unit prices and gross margins [4][8] - The report forecasts net profits for FY25, FY26, and FY27 to be RMB 1.966 billion, RMB 2.147 billion, and RMB 2.342 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.94, RMB 1.02, and RMB 1.12 [5][14] Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at RMB 12.17, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13x for FY25 [2][5][14] - The report highlights the company's strategy of selling ships purchased at lower prices during high market conditions, contributing to significant asset disposal gains [4][13]

公募基金方面，本期较上一期持股增加的公募基金共计1个，即宏利集利债券A，持股增加占比小幅上 涨。本期较上一季度持股减少的公募基金共计12个，主要包括南方匠心优选股票A、南方卓越优选3个 月持有混合A、南方智慧精选灵活配置混合、南方智诚混合、南方瑞祥一年定开灵活配置混合A等，持 股减少占比达2.16%。本期较上一季度新披露的公募基金共计240个，主要包括华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF、 易方达中证红利ETF、招商中证红利ETF、南方中证1000ETF、工银物流产业股票A等。本期较上一季 未再披露的公募基金共计3个，包括南方远见回报股票A、金元顺安桉盛债券A类、国富估值优势混合 A。 2025年4月1日，中谷物流(603565.SH)发布2024年年度报告。截至2025年3月31日，共有262个机构投资 者披露持有中谷物流A股股份，合计持股量达16.58亿股，占中谷物流总股本的78.94%。其中，前十大 机构投资者包括中谷海运集团有限公司、宁波谷洋投资管理合伙企业(有限合伙)、招商银行股份有限公 司-上证红利交易型开放式指数证券投资基金、上海美顿投资管理有限公司、中国平安人寿保险股份有 限公司-分红-个险分红、山东港口投 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, Zhonggu Logistics reported a decline in revenue and transportation volume, primarily due to lower domestic shipping rates and container volumes, while managing to increase net profit through cost control measures [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Zhonggu Logistics achieved an operating revenue of 11.258 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.49% [1] - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.835 billion yuan, an increase of 6.88% compared to the previous year [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 8.80% due to a 24% drop in transportation volume, totaling 11.29 million TEU [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The average domestic container shipping market price in 2024 was 1101.42 points, the lowest since 2016, influenced by a prolonged low price period in the first half of 2023 [1] - The industry average price index for the first half of 2024 fell by 21% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3: Operational Strategies - Zhonggu Logistics implemented cost-reduction measures, including optimizing fuel consumption and controlling fuel costs through its subsidiary [2] - The company increased its capacity allocation to the foreign trade market, resulting in a 41.36% increase in overseas revenue [2] - The company’s self-owned capacity ratio reached 72.71% in 2024, supported by the launch of 18 new container ships [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a long-term demand for bulk commodity transportation in the domestic market, driven by stricter carbon emission regulations and the trend of "bulk to container" [3] - The signing of the RCEP agreement and the introduction of multi-modal transport policies are expected to align supply and demand in the industry [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations with a revenue of 11.26 billion yuan, down 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.84 billion yuan, up 6.9% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.81 billion yuan, down 10.6%, and a net profit of 730 million yuan, up 38.0%, with a non-recurring net profit of 490 million yuan, up 79% [1] - The average PDCI freight rate for 2024 was 1104 points, down 11.8%, while Q4 saw an average of 1287 points, up 8.7% year-on-year and up 34.5% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company reported a significant decrease in operating costs in Q4 2024, amounting to 2.23 billion yuan, down 16.8%, leading to a gross margin of 20.7%, up 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, reaching 90.4% in 2024, with a total dividend of 1.659 billion yuan, reflecting its strong cash flow position [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.26 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.84 billion yuan, with projections for 2025-2027 net profits of 2.01 billion, 1.94 billion, and 2.01 billion yuan respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.93 [4] Market Outlook - The domestic economy is expected to recover moderately, with infrastructure investments driving growth in key cargo categories [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the tightening supply in domestic trade and the sustained demand in foreign trade, particularly due to the favorable conditions following the Red Sea incident [2] Dividend Policy - The company has a strong dividend policy, with a cumulative dividend of 7.22 billion yuan from 2019 to 2024, representing 74% of the net profit during this period [8] - The year-end cash and cash equivalents totaled 12.3 billion yuan, supporting the company's ability to maintain high dividend payouts [8]