行业研究丨深度报告丨运输 [Table_Title] 岁暮回暖，超越季律 ——交运行业 2025 年四季度投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望 2025 年四季度，我们看好四类投资机会：1）物流：政策驱动快递"反内卷"，四季度及 明年利润弹性可观。物流企业出海进入 1-N 的新阶段；2）航空：获益于商务回暖，出行需求逐 步爬坡，叠加中长期供给刚性收紧，航油成本改善明显，行业有望迎来收入与成本共振；3）海 运：关注季节性+非季节性因素带来的共振：1、OPEC+产能恢复，VLCC 供给约束持续，油运 Q4 景气可期；2、散运：四季度西芒杜投产将提振行业上行预期；3、集运：关税扰动下远洋集 运需求和景气度较博弈；4）高速公路：高速公路公司估值以及股息率重回高性价比区间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 张银晗 胡俊文 魏爱 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhonggu Logistics has shown a significant increase in stock price and trading activity, indicating positive market sentiment and potential growth opportunities in the logistics sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 23, Zhonggu Logistics' stock price rose by 2.06% to 11.41 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 139 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.59%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 23.962 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 32.98% year-to-date, with a 7.54% rise over the last five trading days, 5.36% over the last 20 days, and 13.76% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Zhonggu Logistics reported a revenue of 5.338 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 41.59% to 1.072 billion CNY [1]. - The company has distributed a total of 8.127 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.386 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, Zhonggu Logistics had 27,400 shareholders, an increase of 32.52% from the previous period, with an average of 76,636 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 24.54% [1]. - Major shareholders include Huatai-PB Shanghai Composite Dividend ETF, which holds 45.5778 million shares, and Guotou Securities, which is a new shareholder with 29.1517 million shares [2].

Market Overview - The shipping and port sector declined by 0.62% on October 22, with Haixia Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3913.76, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12996.61, down 0.62% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the shipping and port sector included: - Zhonggu Logistics (603565) with a closing price of 11.18, up 1.82% [1] - Tangshan Port (601000) at 4.00, up 1.01% [1] - COSCO Shipping Specialized (600428) at 7.21, up 0.84% [1] - Major decliners included: - Haixia Co. (002320) at 13.59, down 7.55% [2] - Antong Holdings (600179) at 4.29, down 6.94% [2] - Haitong Development (603162) at 10.63, down 6.01% [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector experienced a net outflow of 752 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 708 million yuan [2][3] - The trading volume for Zhonggu Logistics was 177,100 shares, with a transaction value of 197 million yuan [1] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Zhonggu Logistics (603565) had a net inflow of 10.93 million yuan from retail investors, while institutional investors saw a net outflow of 54.53 million yuan [3] - COSCO Shipping Holdings (601866) had a net inflow of 73,040 yuan from retail investors, with a minor outflow from institutional investors [3]

Core Insights - The shipping and port sector experienced a rise of 0.48% on October 21, with Ningbo Marine leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.33, up 1.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13077.32, up 2.06% [1] Sector Performance - Ningbo Marine (600798) closed at 4.22, with a gain of 3.18% and a trading volume of 1.0529 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 438 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Haixia Co. (002320) at 14.70, up 2.80% with a volume of 2.0146 million shares [1] - COSCO Shipping Development (601866) at 2.65, up 2.32% with a volume of 1.3505 million shares [1] - Ningbo Ocean (601022) at 10.66, up 1.91% with a volume of 330,700 shares [1] - Liaoning Port (601880) at 1.80, up 1.69% with a volume of 1.5551 million shares [1] Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector saw a net outflow of 238 million yuan from institutional funds and 282 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 520 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profitability. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express logistics is positive due to healthy competition [3][13] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in VLCC freight rates anticipated in Q4 2025 [13] - The aviation industry is seeing stable demand growth, with supply chain issues leading to increased costs for airlines. The overall passenger demand is projected to grow by 10.4% in 2024, outpacing capacity growth [9][14] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In September 2025, major express companies reported improved performance, with YTO, Shentong, and Yunda achieving business volumes of 2.627 billion, 2.187 billion, and 2.110 billion pieces, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 13.64%, 9.46%, and 3.63% [3][27] - The average revenue per piece for these companies also saw increases, indicating a trend of rising prices in the express delivery sector [3][27] Shipping and Ports - The implementation of new port fees between China and the US is expected to create a dual market structure, granting strategic pricing power to compliant shipping capacities [5] - China has secured pricing power for iron ore, marking a significant shift in global commodity trade dynamics [6] - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 12.9% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [7] Aviation - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that supply chain bottlenecks are delaying aircraft production, leading to increased costs for airlines, estimated to exceed $11 billion in 2025 [9] - Chinese airlines collectively oppose the US Department of Transportation's proposed flight restrictions, highlighting concerns over operational impacts [10] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were reported to be running smoothly, with significant increases in highway freight traffic [12] - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure along highways by 2027 [12] Overall Market Performance - From October 13 to October 17, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 1.47% [18]

Core Insights - The shipping and port sector experienced a rise of 0.78% on October 20, with Antong Holdings leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3863.89, up 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12813.21, up 0.98% [1] Stock Performance - Antong Holdings (600179) closed at 4.71, with a significant increase of 10.05% and a trading volume of 2.5053 million shares [1] - Haitong Development (603162) saw a rise of 9.63%, closing at 12.30 with a trading volume of 846,100 shares [1] - Xiamen Port Authority (000905) increased by 5.98%, closing at 9.92 with a trading volume of 1.4216 million shares [1] - Other notable performers include Phoenix Shipping (000520) up 4.04% and COSCO Energy (600026) up 3.96% [1] Capital Flow - The shipping and port sector experienced a net outflow of 282 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 205 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are actively buying [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Merchants South Oil (601975) had a net inflow of 96.09 million yuan from institutional investors, but saw a net outflow from retail investors [3] - COSCO Energy (600026) also experienced a significant net inflow of 90.75 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors withdrawing funds [3] - Other stocks like Jinjiang Shipping (601083) and China Merchants Shipping (601872) showed similar patterns of institutional inflows and retail outflows [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The travel chain is experiencing a recovery in demand, with ticket prices showing a positive trend and a clear inflection point in revenue [2][5] - The shipping sector is witnessing a seasonal surge in freight rates due to peak season and geopolitical factors [6] - The logistics sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices for major express delivery companies, with a second round of price hikes initiated [6] Summary by Sections Aviation - Demand recovery is evident, with business travel gradually increasing since September, leading to improved revenue margins. The industry is expected to benefit from a tightening supply side and lower fuel costs, resulting in a resonance of income and costs [5][17] - The introduction of new aircraft is expected to remain slow in 2025, with engine maintenance squeezing capacity. The industry is projected to reach historical highs in capacity utilization [5][17] Shipping - Oil shipping rates are on the rise, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 8.7% to $86,000 per day. Geopolitical events and OPEC+ production increases are expected to support the oil shipping market [6][22] - The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping has risen by 12.9% to 1,310 points, driven by increased demand and tariff adjustments [6][22] - The BDI index for bulk shipping has increased by 6.9% to 2,069 points, supported by stable overseas mining shipments [6][22] Logistics - The express delivery sector is seeing a year-on-year increase in unit prices, with a second round of price hikes underway. The overall performance of the sector is expected to improve in Q4 and next year [6][36] - The average daily collection volume for postal express services has decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating seasonal effects and price adjustments [6][36]

Core Viewpoint - Zhonggu Logistics has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in net profit despite a decline in revenue [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Zhonggu Logistics reported a revenue of 5.338 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.99% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.072 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 41.59% [1]. Stock Performance - The stock price of Zhonggu Logistics increased by 26.22% year-to-date, but has seen a slight decline of 0.55% over the last five trading days and 2.70% over the last twenty days [1]. - The stock was trading at 10.83 yuan per share with a market capitalization of 22.744 billion yuan as of October 17 [1]. Shareholder Information - The number of shareholders increased by 32.52% to 27,400 as of June 30, 2025, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 24.54% to 76,636 shares [1]. - Major shareholders include Huatai-PB SSE Dividend ETF and Guotai Junan Securities, with notable changes in their holdings [2]. Dividend Distribution - Zhonggu Logistics has distributed a total of 8.127 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.386 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2]. Market Position - The company operates in the container logistics service sector and is classified under the transportation and shipping industry [1]. - It is associated with several market concepts, including cold chain logistics and high dividend yield [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in profits for the express delivery sector driven by anti-competition policies, with an expected increase in prices leading to improved profitability for companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [5][6]. - The shipping sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly for oil tankers, with historical high freight rates observed in August and September 2025. The report anticipates continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and a release of pent-up inventory demand [5]. - The shipbuilding industry is in a phase of profit release as high-priced orders are being delivered, with a strong demand for replacing old vessels. The report notes that the implementation of the 301 policy is expected to stimulate order volumes and ship prices [5]. - The airline sector is projected to see significant improvements in operational performance due to increased capacity and a recovery in international travel, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines expected to benefit [5][6]. - The report also indicates that the highway and railway sectors are likely to maintain growth in traffic volumes, with improvements in railway freight performance anticipated due to the retraction of previous freight rate reductions [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Oil tanker freight rates reached historical highs in August and September 2025, with a projected 14% decline in VLCC market rates for Q3, while Cape-sized bulk carriers are expected to see a 19% increase in rates [5]. - The report recommends companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Merchants Heavy Industry, highlighting the strong demand and supply constraints in the sector [5]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with ongoing demand for replacing old vessels. The report suggests that the implementation of the 301 policy will positively impact order volumes and ship prices [5]. - Recommended companies include China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [5]. Airlines - The airline sector is entering a peak travel season with increased capacity and improved passenger flow. The report anticipates significant operational improvements for major airlines due to favorable external factors such as lower oil prices [5][6]. - Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key beneficiaries of this trend [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profits due to rising prices and reduced competition. The report notes a 12.3% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume in August 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases [5]. Highway and Railway - The report forecasts growth in highway traffic and railway passenger and freight volumes, with a notable increase in railway freight performance expected in Q3 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Zhejiang Huhangyong and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [5].

Core Insights - The shipping industry is undergoing a digital transformation driven by technologies such as big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things, leading to the emergence of smart shipping as a key driver for industry upgrade [1][11] - China's smart shipping market is projected to grow from 48.41 billion yuan in 2018 to 68.78 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.03% [1][12] - The development of smart shipping in China is supported by various government policies aimed at promoting innovation and high-quality growth in the shipping sector [6][7] Smart Shipping Industry Overview - Smart shipping integrates modern information and artificial intelligence technologies with shipping elements to enhance operational efficiency, reduce costs, and improve service quality [4][11] - The main components of smart shipping include intelligent vessels, smart ports, shipping assurance, regulatory services, and smart shipping services [4] Government Policies - Recent policies emphasize the importance of smart shipping as a key engine for high-quality development in the shipping industry, including initiatives for green and intelligent transformation [6][7] - The government is promoting pilot applications of autonomous navigation and smart shipping technologies [6] Industry Chain - The smart shipping industry chain consists of upstream technologies such as autonomous navigation and environmental sensing, midstream operations focusing on intelligent vessels and ports, and downstream applications in various transportation sectors [8] Market Growth - The smart port market in China is expected to grow from 1.334 billion yuan in 2018 to 5.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 25.85% [15][16] - The intelligent vessel market is projected to increase from 38.99 billion yuan in 2018 to 52.02 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.92% [13][14] Competitive Landscape - The smart shipping industry in China features a multi-layered competitive landscape with participation from state-owned enterprises, local companies, and private firms, focusing on intelligent technology applications and digital platform development [17] - Key players include COSCO Shipping Holdings, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, and others, each specializing in various segments of the shipping industry [17][18][19] Development Trends - The smart shipping industry is moving towards enhanced efficiency through digitalization and automation, aiming to improve operational efficiency and international competitiveness [20] - Green initiatives are being adopted, promoting the use of low-carbon fuels and technologies to reduce emissions [21] - Safety is a fundamental aspect of sustainable development, with the industry leveraging IoT and AI for comprehensive monitoring and risk management [22][23]