立高食品：Q3收入微降，利润提升，前景乐观

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 40.45 yuan [6] - The expected PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 23X, 17X, and 14X respectively [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue slightly declined by 1.11% YoY to 936 million yuan, but net profit increased by 35.07% YoY to 67.83 million yuan [1] - The company's revenue structure shows that frozen baked goods accounted for 58% of total revenue, a 7% YoY decline, while baking raw materials (cream, sauces, etc.) grew by 30% YoY, contributing 42% of total revenue [2] - The company's gross margin remained stable at around 32% for the first three quarters, with improved cost control and efficiency measures [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the catering industry and improved capacity utilization, with projected net profits of 300 million, 390 million, and 490 million yuan for 2024-2026 [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 2.717 billion yuan, a 5.22% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 28.21% YoY to 203 million yuan [1] - The company's EBITDA is expected to grow from 568.27 million yuan in 2024 to 847.42 million yuan in 2026 [5] - The company's EPS is projected to increase from 1.75 yuan in 2024 to 2.90 yuan in 2026 [5] Revenue Breakdown - By product category: frozen baked goods accounted for 58% of revenue, while baking raw materials (cream, sauces, etc.) contributed 42% [2] - By sales channel: distribution channels accounted for 55% of revenue, growing 11% YoY, while supermarket channels declined by 10% YoY, contributing 27% of revenue [2] - Innovative channels (catering, tea drinks, and new retail) accounted for 18% of revenue, with a combined growth rate of 20% YoY [2] Operational Highlights - The company completed the sterile verification and trial production of its second UHT cream factory in Q3, with formal production expected to begin in Q4 [3] - The company has implemented strict cost control measures, optimizing supply chain management and improving delivery capabilities [3] - The company is actively promoting new product launches and optimizing its product portfolio to drive future growth [2] Industry Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the recovery of the catering industry and the implementation of consumption-stimulating policies [4] - The company's focus on product innovation and channel expansion is expected to drive sustained growth in the baking and food ingredients sector [2][4]