CMSK(001979) Haitong Securities·2024-11-11 09:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.88% in the first three quarters of 2024, with total revenue reaching 78.009 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 31.00% to 2.601 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in gross margin from development projects [6][10] - The company has maintained its leading position in the industry despite a decline in sales performance, ranking sixth nationally in both signed sales area and sales amount [7] - The company has initiated a stock repurchase program with a loan commitment of up to 702 million yuan from China Merchants Bank, aimed at supporting market stability [7] - The company successfully launched a rental housing REIT, raising approximately 1.3687 billion yuan, which will help to activate assets and broaden funding channels [8] - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 are 0.67 yuan and 0.72 yuan, respectively, with a reasonable valuation range of 12.04 to 13.38 yuan based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 18-20 times [8][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 78.009 billion yuan, a 2.88% increase year-on-year. The net profit was 2.601 billion yuan, down 31.00% from the previous year, with a basic earnings per share of 0.22 yuan, a decrease of 43.59% [6][10] - The gross margin for the company was 9.95%, down 8.30 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 4.38%, down 2.90 percentage points [11] Sales Performance - The company recorded a signed sales area of 6.4244 million square meters, a decrease of 29.99% year-on-year, and a signed sales amount of 145.171 billion yuan, down 35.85% [7] Cash Flow and Debt - As of September 30, 2024, the net cash flow from operating activities was 12.971 billion yuan, a decline of 49.58% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced sales receipts from real estate projects [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a competitive advantage in sales, supported by a strong financing background amid market supply-side reforms [8][13]