山西汾酒2024年三季报点评：中高端产品增速改善，盈利能力稳步提升

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 31.358 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.25%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.35 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the total revenue was 8.611 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.35%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.94 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.36% [4][5]. - The performance of high-end products improved sequentially, with high-priced liquor sales reaching 22.614 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 14.26% year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a revenue increase of 26.87% [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company's revenue plus contract liabilities amounted to 29.809 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. In Q3 alone, this figure was 8.36 billion yuan, up 16.89% [5]. - Cash flow from sales of goods and services for Q1-Q3 2024 was 30.155 billion yuan, an increase of 24.34% year-on-year, with Q3 cash flow reaching 8.56 billion yuan, up 30.77% [5]. - The company maintained a good cash flow performance, benefiting from proactive inventory control in Q2 2024 [5]. Market Expansion - The company experienced rapid growth outside its home province, with revenue from the provincial market at 11.9 billion yuan (up 11.58% year-on-year) and from outside the province at 19.353 billion yuan (up 21.44% year-on-year) for Q1-Q3 2024 [5][6]. - The company is steadily advancing its national expansion strategy, establishing a solid market foundation in Shanxi [6]. Long-term Outlook - The dual product strategy of "Glass Fen" and "Qinghua" is taking shape, with the former maintaining its competitive advantage and the latter establishing a foothold in the mid-range market. The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of industry demand [6]. - EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are 10.15 yuan and 11.34 yuan, respectively, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 20 and 18 times [6].