铜陵有色：公司简评报告：三季度业绩环比下降，未来矿产铜增量可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1,063.08 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.62%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.30 billion yuan, up 5.97% year-on-year [4] - The average copper price in the third quarter decreased by 5.43% compared to the second quarter, impacting the company's profitability from copper mining [4] - The Mirador Phase II project is progressing steadily, with expected annual copper output of approximately 250,000 tons upon completion, which will enhance the company's copper production capacity [4] - Future copper price is anticipated to remain high due to ongoing supply constraints, and the company is expected to benefit from this trend [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 347.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.96% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 10.29%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.49 billion yuan, up 4.92% year-on-year but down 49.42% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 1,508.94 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit expected to be 33.37 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 0.26 [5] Market Conditions - The average copper futures price for Q3 was 9,339.87 USD/ton, which is a decrease from the previous quarter. However, the TC processing fee increased significantly, which helped to bolster the company's smelting profits [4] Future Outlook - The Mirador Phase II project is expected to be completed by June 2025, which will significantly increase the company's copper output and allow it to capitalize on rising copper prices [4] - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 1,612.90 billion yuan and 1,613.96 billion yuan, and net profits of 40.27 billion yuan and 50.80 billion yuan respectively [5]