SAILUN GROUP(601058) 首创证券·2024-11-11 13:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.628 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.244 billion yuan, up 60.17% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 8.474 billion yuan, marking a 14.82% increase year-on-year and a 7.84% increase quarter-on-quarter, achieving a historical high [3][4] - The company's tire production and sales volume have steadily increased, with Q3 production and sales reaching historical highs. The tire production for the first three quarters of 2024 was 54.627 million units, a 30.00% increase year-on-year, while sales were 53.878 million units, up 31.88% year-on-year. Tire revenue for the same period was 22.992 billion yuan, an increase of 27.51% year-on-year [4] - The company has demonstrated operational resilience under cost pressures, with raw material costs and shipping costs showing signs of decline. The weighted cost of raw materials was approximately 13,027 yuan per ton, up 13.10% year-on-year, but has recently decreased to 14,445.3 yuan per ton, down 5.69% from the peak. The Baltic Dry Index has also dropped significantly, indicating improved profitability potential for tire manufacturers [4] - The company is advancing its global layout, with production bases established in China and plans for projects in Mexico and Indonesia. By the end of Q2, the company had planned an annual production capacity of 26 million all-steel radial tires and 103 million semi-steel radial tires, which will contribute to profit growth as these projects come online [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.312 billion yuan, 5.278 billion yuan, and 6.301 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.31 yuan, 1.61 yuan, and 1.92 yuan, reflecting significant growth potential and maintaining a "Buy" rating [4][5]