Zhende Medical(603301) 华创证券·2024-11-11 17:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZhenDe Medical (603301) with a target price of 34 CNY [1][3] Core Views - Revenue in Q3 2024 reached 1.083 billion CNY, a 19.92% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders surging 131.73% YoY to 146 million CNY [1] - Excluding exchange rate impacts, adjusted net profit grew over 40% YoY in Q3 2024 [1] - The company's overseas business recovered strongly, with Q3 2024 revenue increasing 24.36% YoY to 645 million CNY [1] - Domestic hospital channel revenue grew 20.99% YoY in Q3 2024, reaching 278 million CNY [1] Financial Performance Revenue Breakdown - Regular business revenue (excluding protective products) grew 21.05% YoY in Q3 2024 to 1.054 billion CNY [1] - Protective products revenue declined 10.56% YoY to 29 million CNY in Q3 2024 [1] - Domestic business revenue increased 13.52% YoY to 432 million CNY in Q3 2024 [1] Profitability - Gross margin improved to 33.77% in Q3 2024, up 0.45 percentage points YoY [1] - Net profit margin surged to 13.87% in Q3 2024, a 6.57 percentage point increase YoY [1] - Asset disposal contributed approximately 93 million CNY to Q3 2024 net profit [1] Cost Structure - Sales expense ratio decreased to 7.53% in Q3 2024, down 0.43 percentage points YoY [1] - Management expense ratio fell to 12.20% in Q3 2024, a 0.75 percentage point reduction YoY [1] - R&D expense ratio increased to 3.36% in Q3 2024, up 0.24 percentage points YoY [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 4.466 billion CNY in 2024E to 6.024 billion CNY in 2026E [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 466 million CNY in 2024E to 618 million CNY in 2026E [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1.75 CNY in 2024E to 2.32 CNY in 2026E [2] - PE ratio is estimated to decline from 14x in 2024E to 10x in 2026E [2] Valuation - The DCF model suggests a total valuation of 9 billion CNY for the company [1] - The target price of 34 CNY implies a 43.7% upside potential from the current price of 23.66 CNY [3]