DIRUI(300396) 华创证券·2024-11-11 18:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Dirui Medical (300396) with a target price of 22 CNY, compared to the current price of 17.28 CNY [1] Core Views - Dirui Medical's performance is under temporary pressure, with a focus on the installation of high-speed machines and the increase in the sales proportion of reagent products [2] - The company's domestic business in Q3 2024 focused on basic medical instruments, leading to a decline in gross margin due to product structure and medical procurement policies [2] - Overseas business is recovering as planned, with some localization projects already operational, shortening the reagent supply cycle and reducing transportation costs [2] - The company plans to accelerate the installation of high-speed machines and promote balanced development of instruments and reagents to ensure stable growth [2] - Comprehensive cost control measures have achieved initial results, with a significant decrease in management expenses by 51.80% in Q3 2024 [2] - Product registration is progressing steadily, with 4 medical device change registration documents and 22 medical device registration certificates obtained in August 2024, enhancing the company's product competitiveness [2] Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, Dirui Medical's revenue was 1.175 billion CNY (+12.10% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 193 million CNY (-17.80% YoY) [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 297 million CNY (-15.97% YoY), with net profit attributable to shareholders of 27 million CNY (-62.28% YoY) [1] - The company's sales expenses in Q3 2024 were 54 million CNY (-0.60% YoY), R&D expenses were 33 million CNY (-4.64% YoY), and management expenses were 9 million CNY (-51.80% YoY) [2] - The management expense ratio in Q3 2024 was 3.16%, a decrease of 2.34 percentage points [2] Financial Forecast - The report forecasts Dirui Medical's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be 280 million, 380 million, and 520 million CNY, with YoY growth rates of +2.2%, +35.5%, and +35.8% respectively [2] - EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.03, 1.40, and 1.90 CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x, 12x, and 9x [2] - The DCF model estimates the company's overall valuation at 6 billion CNY, corresponding to a target price of 22 CNY [2] Market Performance - Dirui Medical's total market capitalization is 4.712 billion CNY, with a circulating market capitalization of 4.708 billion CNY [4] - The company's 12-month high and low prices are 32.80 CNY and 12.92 CNY respectively [4] Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on the localization of overseas markets, with some projects already operational, which is expected to improve the proportion of reagent sales in international markets [2] - Dirui Medical is advancing the development of high-speed machines and reagent products, aiming to optimize its product structure and enhance market competitiveness [2]