顺鑫农业：盈利水平持续回升，Q3现金流略承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.95 CNY [4] Core Views - The company's profitability has improved significantly, with a notable increase in gross margin driven by product structure upgrades, particularly the premiumization of its flagship products [1] - Despite a decline in Q3 revenue and net profit, the company has shown a substantial reduction in losses, with net profit narrowing by 80.83% YoY in Q3 2024 [1] - The company's "dual-engine" strategy focusing on its core products, Bai Niu Er and Jin Biao, is expected to drive future growth, with projected revenue growth of 6% and 8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.63 billion CNY, a YoY decrease of 37.20%, and a net loss of 41 million CNY, representing an 80.83% reduction in losses compared to the same period last year [1] - Gross margin increased by 13.46 percentage points YoY to 36.25% in Q3 2024, while net margin declined by 5.88 percentage points to -2.25%, primarily due to increased sales and management expenses [1] - Operating cash flow in Q3 2024 was 110 million CNY, a YoY decrease of 42.84%, while contract liabilities remained stable, increasing by 95 million CNY QoQ [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 9.3 billion CNY in 2024, with a projected growth of 6% and 8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to turn positive in 2024, reaching 332 million CNY, with further growth of 37% and 25% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 47X, 34X, and 27X for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Industry Context - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically within the baijiu (Chinese liquor) sector, which is facing challenges due to weak consumer demand in the short term [2] - The company's strategy to focus on premium products and strengthen its marketing efforts is expected to help it navigate the current market conditions and drive future growth [2]