Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company achieved a stable revenue growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with operating income of 3.878 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 522 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.76% [5] - The introduction of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost performance, benefiting leading home furnishing brands like the company [7] - The company is projected to have net profits of 814 million yuan, 916 million yuan, and 1.022 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.5%, 12.5%, and 11.6% [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported operating income of 1.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%, and a net profit of 149 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.29% [5] - The overall gross margin remained stable, with a sales gross margin of 50.80% for the first three quarters of 2024, slightly up from the previous year [6] - The company’s sales expense ratio decreased to 25.20% in the first three quarters of 2024, down 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 5.579 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.134 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% [9][12] - The projected gross margin is expected to improve from 50.3% in 2023 to 51.2% in 2026 [12] Valuation Metrics - The current closing price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18.23 for 2024 and 16.21 for 2025, with a reasonable valuation range of 41.20 to 43.49 yuan based on a PE of 18-19 times for 2025 [8][11]
慕思股份：公司季报点评：24Q1-3收入保持正增长，以旧换新有望促进业绩增长