GED(000539) 长江证券·2024-11-12 01:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company's electricity generation maintained steady growth, with a total generation of 371.14 billion kWh in the third quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. However, the average on-grid electricity price decreased by 8.43% year-on-year to 521.15 yuan/MWh, which limited revenue performance [4][5]. - The company reported a third-quarter revenue of 16.439 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.35% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 564 million yuan, down 35.18% year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a total electricity generation of 371.14 billion kWh in Q3, up 6.26% year-on-year, driven by rapid growth in clean energy generation. However, the average on-grid electricity price fell to 521.15 yuan/MWh, down 8.43% year-on-year, which constrained revenue growth [4][5]. - The third-quarter revenue was 16.439 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.35% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 564 million yuan, down 35.18% year-on-year [4][5]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's installed capacity increased year-on-year, leading to a rise in fuel costs. The operating costs grew by 4.36% to 14.035 billion yuan, resulting in a gross profit of 2.403 billion yuan, down 29.01% year-on-year [5]. - Investment income for the third quarter was 246 million yuan, a decrease of 7.91% year-on-year, reflecting pressure on operational performance due to the market environment [5]. Future Outlook - Despite the ongoing pressure on performance due to the decline in market electricity prices, there is an expectation that the company's profitability will gradually improve as market competition stabilizes. The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 0.36 yuan, 0.47 yuan, and 0.57 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.46x, 10.36x, and 8.38x [5].