NHD(002946) 长江证券·2024-11-12 01:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 8.15 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 474 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.37%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 507 million yuan, up 29.5% year-on-year [4][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.785 billion yuan, down 3.82% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 177 million yuan, an increase of 22.92%, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 193 million yuan, up 19.73% year-on-year [4][6]. - The decline in revenue in Q3 2024 was primarily due to the drag from trade-related businesses and the impact of one yogurt product being removed from the financial statements. Despite the pressure on demand, the company's product structure continues to optimize [4][5]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit margin increased by 1.16 percentage points year-on-year to 5.81% for the first three quarters of 2024, with a gross profit margin up by 1.67 percentage points to 29.09%. The expense ratio increased by 0.38 percentage points to 21.49% [5]. - In Q3 2024, the net profit margin rose by 1.38 percentage points to 6.36%, and the gross profit margin increased by 2.4 percentage points to 28.83%. The expense ratio for this quarter was 20.58%, up 1.01 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The company is focusing on its "Fresh Cube" strategy, which is expected to drive positive revenue growth for the year, alongside an acceleration in profitability. The company also declared its first interim dividend of 30.12 million yuan, reflecting confidence in future profit growth and enhancing shareholder returns [6]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 551 million yuan for 2024 and 685 million yuan for 2025, corresponding to EPS of 0.64 yuan and 0.80 yuan, respectively. The PE ratios are projected to be 21 times for 2024 and 17 times for 2025 [6][11].