川宁生物：前三季度业绩超预期，高值、大宗合成生物学品种打开成长空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add-B" rating for the company, indicating a projected price increase of 5%-15% relative to the benchmark index [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has exceeded expectations in its performance for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue reaching 4.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, and a net profit of 1.08 billion yuan, up 68.1% [2][3]. - The company's gross margin and net margin improved in Q3 2024, reaching 37.1% (+4.0 percentage points) and 24.6% (+3.2 percentage points) respectively, due to reduced raw material and energy costs [3][4]. - The competitive landscape for antibiotic intermediates remains stable, with a strong demand outlook for Q4 2024 as prices for penicillin intermediates remain high [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue was 4.46 billion yuan, with quarterly revenues of 1.52 billion yuan, 1.67 billion yuan, and 1.26 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 20.0%, 45.7%, and 8.3% respectively [2][3]. - The net profit for the same period was 1.08 billion yuan, with quarterly net profits of 350 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 310 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth rates of 101.0%, 92.0%, and 24.2% respectively [2][3]. - The company forecasts total revenues of 5.92 billion yuan, 6.56 billion yuan, and 7.27 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding net profits of 1.40 billion yuan, 1.64 billion yuan, and 1.85 billion yuan [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected P/E ratios of 24.8, 21.1, and 18.8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [5][6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve to 17.7%, 18.2%, and 17.8% over the same period [5][6].