KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Chengtong Securities·2024-11-12 09:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [7][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 16.91% in Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching 123.12 billion and net profit of 60.83 billion, indicating a strong performance despite industry pressures [1][5]. - The company is actively controlling volume and costs to ensure stable development, with a gross margin of 91.53% and a net margin of 52.19% in Q3 [2][3]. - The company has successfully consolidated its market position in the premium liquor segment, with notable revenue contributions from its flagship products [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue growth rates for the first three quarters were 20.38%, 18.04%, and 16.95%, respectively, while net profit growth rates were 15.73%, 16.10%, and 13.23% [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 30 billion, which accounts for nearly half of its net profit for the first three quarters [1]. - The forecast for revenue in 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 170.3 billion, 191.8 billion, and 214.4 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 82.2 billion, 94.4 billion, and 106.3 billion [5][11]. Cost Management - The sales expense ratio decreased significantly in Q3 compared to the first half of the year, indicating effective cost control measures [3]. - The company has maintained a stable gross margin despite a slight year-on-year decline, showcasing its operational efficiency [2]. Market Positioning - The company has strategically paused the launch of its 1935 series liquor to stabilize market prices and enhance its competitive edge in the premium segment [4]. - The revenue from flagship products like Maotai liquor and series liquor showed growth, with Maotai liquor's revenue share increasing [4]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 27 times, with projected P/E ratios for the next three years being 25.2, 21.9, and 19.5, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5][11]. - The report highlights a robust return on equity (ROE) of 34.7% for 2023, reflecting strong profitability [11].