迪哲医药：首次覆盖报告：源头创新，小分子创新药迈向全球

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Dizal Pharmaceutical-U (688192 SH) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of 61 82 RMB [1][2][3] Core Views - Dizal Pharmaceutical focuses on source innovation and has a globally competitive pipeline with core products Suvotinib and Golvatinib entering the harvest phase [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 467 973 and 1 582 billion RMB in 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively driven by the commercialization of Suvotinib and Golvatinib [2] - Suvotinib has shown global best-in-class potential in treating EGFR ex20ins NSCLC and has received breakthrough therapy designations in both China and the US [2] - Golvatinib a next-generation JAK1 inhibitor has demonstrated clinical breakthroughs in treating r/r PTCL and is expected to provide new treatment options [2] - The early-stage pipeline is robust with several first-in-class molecules such as DZD8586 showing promising early data [2] Product Pipeline Suvotinib - Suvotinib is a targeted therapy for EGFR ex20ins NSCLC a difficult-to-treat mutation with limited treatment options [2] - It has shown superior efficacy with ORRs of 60 8% and 53 3% in domestic and international trials respectively outperforming existing therapies [2] - The drug has been approved in China and is under review in the US with potential for significant market penetration [2] - Suvotinib is also being developed for first-line treatment with early data showing mPFS of 10 2 and 12 4 months for different dose groups [2] Golvatinib - Golvatinib is a highly selective JAK1 inhibitor with a long half-life of 40-50 hours allowing for once-daily dosing [2] - It has shown breakthrough efficacy in r/r PTCL with an ORR of 44 3% and a CR rate of 23 9% significantly higher than existing treatments [2] - The drug has been approved in China and is expected to enter the commercialization phase in overseas markets [2] Early-Stage Pipeline - DZD8586 a first-in-class LYN/BTK inhibitor has shown promising early data and potential to overcome BTK inhibitor resistance [2] - Other early-stage candidates such as DZD6008 DZD2269 and DZD1516 are progressing through clinical trials with potential to validate their first-in-class or best-in-class potential [2] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth from 467 million RMB in 2024 to 1 582 billion RMB in 2026 driven by the commercialization of Suvotinib and Golvatinib [2] - Despite being in a strategic loss-making phase the company's net loss is expected to narrow as revenues grow [2] Valuation - The target price of 61 82 RMB is derived using both absolute and relative valuation methods with a focus on the discounted cash flow (DCF) model [2][19] - The relative valuation method using PS multiples suggests a target price of 74 93 RMB but the more conservative DCF-based target is chosen [19]