JGJC(000799) Tianfeng Securities·2024-11-12 12:44Investment Rating - The report has adjusted the investment rating to "Accumulate" [3][5]. Core Views - The company experienced significant pressure on demand in Q3, leading to a substantial decline in revenue and profit, with Q3 revenue down 67.24% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company is undergoing a marketing transformation, which is expected to yield positive results in the future despite current challenges [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 1.191 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 56 million yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 51 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 44.41%, 88.20%, and 89.27% respectively [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 197 million yuan, a net loss of 65 million yuan, and a net loss excluding non-recurring items of 66 million yuan, with year-on-year declines of 67.24%, 213.67%, and 219.48% respectively [1]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 decreased by 11.65 and 42.22 percentage points year-on-year to 64.04% and -32.77% respectively [2]. - The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increased by 30.21 and 13.61 percentage points year-on-year to 66.30% and 18.97% respectively [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised to 1.744 billion yuan, 1.946 billion yuan, and 2.141 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 2.43 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, and 2.99 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 172 million yuan, 202 million yuan, and 233 million yuan, down from previous estimates of 390 million yuan, 470 million yuan, and 550 million yuan [3]. - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 118.6X, 100.9X, and 87.7X for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.14% from 2022 [4]. - The net profit for 2023 is expected to be 548 million yuan, down 47.77% from 2022 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted to be 0.53 yuan, compared to 1.69 yuan in 2023 [4].