RSPC(002493) 国泰君安·2024-11-12 14:54Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating and adjusts the earnings forecast downward while raising the target price to 12.23 CNY from the previous 11.20 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 was under pressure due to oil price fluctuations and weaker-than-expected demand recovery. The partnership with Saudi Aramco aims to expand the downstream market, and the controlling shareholder's continued stock buyback reflects confidence in the company's long-term development [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 289,095 million CNY, with a projected increase to 341,429 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.0% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 3,341 million CNY in 2022, expected to rise to 1,352 million CNY in 2024, indicating a 16.8% increase [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.13 CNY in 2024, up from 0.11 CNY in 2023 [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve significantly from 2.6% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2026 [3]. Q3 Performance Insights - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 877 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 714.73%. However, Q3 net profit dropped to 19 million CNY, a decline of 98.48% year-on-year [1][2]. - The average oil price in Q3 was 78.60 USD/barrel, down 6.44 USD/barrel from Q2, leading to a decline in the average prices of related chemical products [1][4]. Strategic Developments - The company signed multiple strategic agreements with Saudi Aramco to explore the downstream market and develop overseas markets through mutual equity participation and project collaboration [1][2]. - The controlling shareholder plans to increase their stake in the company by investing between 500 million CNY and 1 billion CNY, without setting a price range for the buyback [1][2].