GOLDWIND(002202) Haitong Securities·2024-11-13 00:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in the gross margin of the wind turbine manufacturing segment and new opportunities for growth in overseas markets [4] - The company has seen a year-on-year increase in gross margin for wind turbine and component sales, with overseas business gross margin up by 5.77 percentage points [4] - The sales capacity of wind turbine models of 6MW and above has significantly increased by 21.10 percentage points to 57.64% [4] - The company achieved a year-on-year increase of 42.14% in net profit attributable to the parent company for the first nine months of 2024 [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported revenue of 35.839 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.24%, and a net profit of 1.792 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.14% [4] - The gross margin for wind turbine and component sales increased slightly year-on-year, while the gross margin for wind farm development and services showed mixed results [4] - The company’s revenue breakdown for 24H1 was 63.20% from wind turbine and components sales, 21.79% from wind farm development, and 11.75% from wind power services [4] Market Outlook - The global wind power market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028, with the company maintaining its leading position in the industry [5] - The company holds a 19.7% market share in the domestic market, continuing to be the largest player [5] - The company has a strong order backlog, with external orders totaling 41.38GW as of September 2024, a year-on-year increase of 38.21% [6] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is 2.609 billion yuan for 2024 and 3.374 billion yuan for 2025, with corresponding EPS of 0.62 yuan and 0.80 yuan per share [7] - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 14-18 times for 2025, with a reasonable price range of 11.2 to 14.4 yuan [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 18.1% in 2024 and 20.1% in 2025 [11]