Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) Changjiang Securities·2024-11-13 07:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company has increased its market investment despite short-term fluctuations in performance, with a focus on product innovation and channel health management [5][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 28.959 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a decrease of 6.52% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.99 billion yuan, an increase of 1.67% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company expects to achieve a reduction in losses in the fourth quarter due to a low base from the previous year [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 8.891 billion yuan, down 5.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.35 billion yuan, down 9.03% year-on-year [3]. - The total sales volume for the first three quarters was 6.785 million kiloliters, a decrease of 6.98% year-on-year, with a slight increase in the main brand's sales proportion [3][4]. - The average price per ton increased by 0.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters, while it decreased by 0.2% year-on-year in Q3 [3]. Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points to 42.1% [4]. - The net profit margin for Q3 decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 15.2%, while the net profit margin for the first three quarters increased by 1.39 percentage points to 17.23% [4]. Strategic Direction - The company remains committed to its strategic direction, focusing on product innovation and market investment, while managing inventory to maintain channel health [5]. - The expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected to be 3.3, 3.8, and 4.1 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 23X, 20X, and 18X [5].