Guolian Sec(601456) Huachuang Securities·2024-11-13 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Guolian Securities (601456) with a target price of 15 CNY, compared to the current price of 13.06 CNY [1]. Core Views - The performance of Guolian Securities in the third quarter of 2024 met expectations, and the report expresses continued optimism regarding the company's business development [1]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year increase in proprietary income, indicating a recovery in proprietary business [1]. - The report anticipates growth in the investment banking business following the acquisition of Minsheng Securities [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Total operating revenue (excluding other business income) for Q3 2024 was 2 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%, with a quarterly revenue of 900 million CNY, remaining stable sequentially [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 400 million CNY, down 45.5% year-on-year, with a quarterly profit of 310 million CNY, also stable sequentially [1]. - The proprietary business net income totaled 800 million CNY, with a quarterly income of 510 million CNY, showing a sequential increase of 52 million CNY [1]. - The report notes that the return on equity (ROE) for the reporting period was 2.2%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the quarterly ROE was 1.7%, stable sequentially [1]. Business Segment Performance - Proprietary business income (including fair value changes and net investment income) amounted to 930 million CNY, with a quarterly income of 550 million CNY, reflecting a sequential increase of 30 million CNY [1]. - Interest income from credit business was 870 million CNY, with a quarterly income of 290 million CNY, showing a sequential increase of 17 million CNY [1]. - Margin financing business scale was 8.8 billion CNY, with a year-on-year market share decrease of 0.03 percentage points [1]. - Brokerage business revenue showed a notable sequential decline, primarily due to a high base effect [1]. Future Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.25 CNY, 0.30 CNY, and 0.34 CNY respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BPS) of 6.35 CNY, 6.53 CNY, and 6.74 CNY [1]. - The report anticipates a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.06, 2.00, and 1.94 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with ROE projected at 3.97%, 4.56%, and 5.08% [1].