Suzhou Centec (688702) 海通证券·2024-11-13 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company has maintained an excellent gross margin performance, with a gross margin of 38.95% for the first three quarters, up 4.69 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the gross margin was 41.82%, showing a slight decrease of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 4.79 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The company is expanding its R&D team and increasing investment in high-end chip development, which has led to a rise in expense ratios. The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters was -76 million yuan, compared to a profit of 43 million yuan in the same period last year [4] - The company is expected to deliver small batches of high-end flagship chips in 2024, which are designed for large-scale data centers and cloud services, supporting a maximum port rate of 800G. This positions the company favorably in the domestic chip market [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters was 808 million yuan, down 7.95% year-on-year, with Q3 2024 revenue at 275 million yuan, up 17.69% year-on-year but down 0.94% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The company forecasts revenues of 1.137 billion yuan, 1.576 billion yuan, and 2.044 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits projected at -104 million yuan, 10 million yuan, and 118 million yuan for the same years [5][6] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 39.0% by 2026 [6][8] Valuation - The company is valued at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 20-25 times for 2025, corresponding to a reasonable market capitalization range of 31.5 billion yuan to 39.4 billion yuan, with a target price range of 76.88 yuan to 96.10 yuan [5][6]