电子/半导体 盛科通信（688702.SH） 2026 年 03 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2026/3/27 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 173.70 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 218.88/54.50 | | 总市值(亿元) | 712.17 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 352.60 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.10 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.03 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 189.59 | 股价走势图 -80% 0% 80% 160% 240% 320% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 盛科通信 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《三季度业绩亮眼，或持续受益于高 端芯片放量—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.10.31 《高端芯片逐步应用，助力国产超节 点互联发展—公司信息更新报告》 -2025.9.2 《把握国产化浪潮，加大高端芯片研 发投入 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.4.29 稀缺高速交换芯片龙头扬帆起航 ——公司信息更新报告 | 蒋颖（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） ...

从整机厂看交换芯片 26 年大产业趋势 20260325 摘要 算力瓶颈驱动"整机柜超节点"形态演进，阿里、腾讯、字节计划于 2026Q3 末规模化起量，配套万卡集群训练大模型。 2026 年部署规划：腾讯 ETH-64 约 2,400 台，阿里盘久 128 约 2000 台，字节大禹约 1,800 台；2027 年部署量预计增长 30%-40%。 交换芯片国产替代加速：博通 TH6 交期超 52 周且性能受限，阿里已下 单盛科通信 25.6T 芯片约 3 万颗，对应 2026 年订单额约 10 亿元。 技术路径演进：2026 年主流采用两颗 25.6T 芯片组合实现 51.2T 能力， 2026Q3 盛科 51.2T 单芯片测试通过后将实现切换。 竞争格局：盛科通信在 51.2T 进度及互联网大厂验证指引中领先中兴与 华为；众芯微 51.2T/102.4T 产品预计需至 2027 年推出。 价值量驱动：2027 年单机柜 GPU 数量翻倍（如 72 卡升至 144 卡）将 直接带动交换芯片用量翻倍，叠加机柜总数增长，市场空间弹性巨大。 供应链受益：超节点催生集中供电（PowerShelf）、液冷散热（英维克 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The demand for AI inference is continuously growing, driven by a significant increase in tokens usage, with a reported increase from 1.62 trillion tokens in March 2025 to 18 trillion tokens in March 2026, representing a growth of approximately 1011% [6][11] - Cloud service providers are raising prices for AI computing products due to rising hardware costs and increased demand for AI services, with price hikes ranging from 5% to 34% for various services [8][33] - The report highlights that the expansion of AI capabilities is expected to lead to a substantial increase in the number of active agents and token consumption, with annual token consumption projected to grow from 0.0005 PetaTokens in 2025 to 152,667 PetaTokens by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3418% [9][38] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The computer industry has shown a relative performance decline of -10.1% over the past month, while the Shanghai Composite Index has remained stable [5] Price Adjustments - Major cloud providers like Alibaba Cloud and Baidu Cloud are increasing prices for AI computing services due to rising hardware procurement costs, with specific increases of up to 34% for Alibaba's AI computing services and 30% for Baidu's [8][27] Token Consumption Growth - The report indicates a significant rise in token consumption, with OpenClaw being a major contributor, achieving a monthly token call volume of 13.4 trillion as of March 2026 [17] - The share of domestic models in token consumption is increasing, with domestic models accounting for approximately 53.4% of the top models' total token calls as of March 2026 [14] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for AI computing and tokens will continue to rise, benefiting cloud service providers and related upstream and downstream companies [10][44] - The ongoing increase in hardware costs and the demand for AI services suggest that price adjustments in the cloud computing sector may persist [9][33]

交换芯片系列专家会 20260315 摘要 2026-2027 年国内 Scale-up 交换芯片需求将从 10 万颗翻倍至 20 万 颗以上，Scale-out 市场则由 26 万颗增至 30-40 万颗。 2027 年市场空间预计较 2026 年增长 7-8 倍，主因是 51.2T 芯片单价 高达 5 万元（vs 25.6T 约 1.5 万元）且渗透率将超 70%。 盛科通信在 Scale-up 市场占据绝对主导，2026 年份额预计超 90%； 在 Scale-out 市场凭借 25.6T 先发优势，2026 年份额保底 20%。 阿里、字节、腾讯 2026 年超算节点规划明确，合计交换芯片需求超 10 万颗，大规模交付集中在 2026 年下半年。 2028 年全量国产化政策驱动明确，交换芯片位列信创清单首位，运营 商及国企市场 30%份额将由国产厂商刚性承接。 竞争格局方面，盛科作为独立第三方供应商，在下游整机厂（新华三、 锐捷等）的导入优先级高于中兴微电子等自研整机厂商。 Q&A 请问 2026 年和 2027 年，Scale-up 和 Scale-out 交换芯片市场的总体空 间分别是多少？其中， ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The upcoming GTC conference is expected to showcase advancements in GPU architecture, power supply upgrades, and liquid cooling technologies, which will further solidify the global computing ecosystem and accelerate the commercialization of core components and supporting infrastructure [3][12] - The OFC conference is anticipated to highlight the ongoing upward trend in the optical communication sector, with significant developments in high-speed optical modules and advanced packaging technologies [4][15] - The report emphasizes the resonance of the global AI industry, recommending investment in four main areas: optical communication, liquid cooling, domestic computing power, and satellite technology [5][13] Summary by Sections GTC and OFC Insights - The GTC conference will take place from March 16 to 19, 2026, focusing on new GPU architectures and related technologies [11] - The OFC conference will occur from March 15 to 19, 2026, showcasing advancements in high-speed optical modules and related technologies [15] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the optical communication sector include: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology [13][17] - Beneficiary stocks include: Longfly Optical Fiber, Robot Technology, and others [13][16] - In the liquid cooling and power supply sectors, recommended stocks include: Yingweike and others [20][18] Market Review - The communication index experienced a slight decline of 0.12% during the week of March 9 to March 13, 2026 [25] 5G Infrastructure Data - By December 2025, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.84 million, with a net increase of 588,000 stations from the previous year [27] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.204 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.74% [27][29]

证券代码：688702 证券简称：盛科通信 公告编号：2026-006 苏州盛科通信股份有限公司 关于持股 5%以上股东权益变动触及 1%刻度的 提示性公告 股东国家集成电路产业投资基金股份有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息真 实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一 致。 重要内容提示： | 权益变动方向 | 比例增加□ | | 比例减少☑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 权益变动前合计比例 | 13.00% | | | | 权益变动后合计比例 | 12.00% | | | | 本次变动是否违反已作出的承 诺、意向、计划 | 是□ | 否☑ | | | 是否触发强制要约收购义务 | 是□ | 否☑ | | 一、 信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 1.身份类别 | | □控股股东/实际控制人及其一致行动人 | | --- | --- | | | 5%以上大股东及其一致行动人 ☑其他 | | 投资者及其一致行动人的身份 | □合并口径第一大股东及其一致行动人（仅适用 | | | 于无控股股东、实际控制人） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry, indicating a favorable outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC 2026 conference is expected to unveil a new AI inference chip system, integrating the LPU architecture from NVIDIA's acquisition of Groq, aimed at optimizing inference performance [5]. - The global demand for computing power is shifting from training to inference, with significant implications for the market structure and opportunities for domestic chip manufacturers [8]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of domestic infrastructure development for AI inference, suggesting a broad growth opportunity for related AI chip, hardware, and service companies [8]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The computer industry has shown mixed performance over the past year, with a 1-month decline of 0.6%, a 3-month increase of 4.4%, and a 12-month decline of 1.3% [3]. Upcoming Events - The NVIDIA GTC 2026 conference will take place from March 16 to 19 in San Jose, California, featuring key advancements in AI technologies, including new AI acceleration chips and systems [5]. Technological Developments - The Groq LPU is designed for inference acceleration, utilizing SRAM for model parameter storage, which significantly enhances data processing speed compared to traditional GPU architectures [6][7]. Market Trends - By 2032, the proportion of training costs in large cloud computing companies' data center expenditures is expected to drop from over 40% to around 14%, indicating a clear shift towards inference [8]. - Major companies are securing large-scale orders for inference-optimized chips, highlighting the growing demand for such technologies [8]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on specific stocks within the AI chip sector, including companies like Haiguang Information, Cambrian, and others, as well as those involved in servers and liquid cooling technologies [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the development of domestic computing power, with accelerated progress in switching chips. The projected revenue for 2025 is CNY 1.151 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.35% [1][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be a loss of CNY 150 million, which is an increase in loss of CNY 82 million compared to the previous year [1][7]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic commercial switching chip market, with its Arctic series performance comparable to overseas products. It is expected to grow rapidly due to increased demand from data centers driven by the AI wave and the trend of domestic production [7]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2025 is estimated at CNY 1,151 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% projected for 2026 and 26.3% for 2027 [3][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve to CNY 530 million in 2026 and CNY 2.02 billion in 2027, following a loss of CNY 150 million in 2025 [3][8]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be CNY -0.37 in 2025, turning positive at CNY 0.13 in 2026 and CNY 0.49 in 2027 [3][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to be CNY 2.738 billion in 2025, with a slight increase to CNY 3.518 billion by 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][7][14]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the development of domestic computing power, with accelerated progress in switching chips. The projected revenue for 2025 is 1.151 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.35% [1][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -150 million yuan for 2025, which is a deterioration of 82 million yuan compared to the previous year [1][7]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic commercial switching chip market, with its Arctic series performance comparable to overseas products. It is anticipated to grow rapidly due to increased demand from data centers driven by the AI wave and the trend of domestic production [7][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: 1,151 million yuan (up 6.35% YoY) - 2026E: 1,833 million yuan (up 59.3% YoY) - 2027E: 2,315 million yuan (up 26.3% YoY) [3][8] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2025E: -150 million yuan (YoY decline of 119.5%) - 2026E: 53 million yuan (YoY increase of 135.6%) - 2027E: 202 million yuan (YoY increase of 277.8%) [3][8] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2025E: -0.37 yuan - 2026E: 0.13 yuan - 2027E: 0.49 yuan [3][8] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025E: -539 - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio for 2025E: 37.0 [3][8] Market Position - The company is recognized as a core enterprise in China's switching chip sector, with expectations of deep benefits from the growth in domestic computing power demand. The report highlights the increasing capabilities of domestic models and their significant share in the market [7][8].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the market in March will revolve around the dual variables of internal policy windows and external event shocks, with a focus on structural highlights from the Two Sessions, suggesting a likely stable fluctuation in the market index during this period [1][2] - It is anticipated that the market will experience limited competition due to moderate expectations for overall policy, with a higher focus on industrial policies, particularly potential key directions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - The report indicates that external factors, such as the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, will add new variables to the market, but the overall impact on the A-share market is expected to be less than that on European and American markets [2] Group 2 - The report recommends a diversified investment strategy to address both internal and external variables, suggesting a focus on sectors such as AI, cyclical commodities, and structural highlights from the Two Sessions [3] - It emphasizes that the AI and general AI sectors remain a long-term market focus, with significant advancements in domestic models and a trend towards high-cost performance tokens going abroad [4] - The cyclical sectors are expected to see opportunities for rotation, driven by economic recovery and inflation logic, with resource-related sectors benefiting from rising oil prices and heightened risk aversion [4] Group 3 - The report lists a selection of ten recommended stocks, including Baofeng Energy, Wanhua Chemical, and others, with detailed financial metrics such as market capitalization, EPS, and PE ratios for 2026 and 2027 [5][6] - Baofeng Energy is noted for its leading position in the domestic coal-to-olefins industry, with a projected capacity of 5.2 million tons per year by the end of 2025, and a stable gross margin of over 30% [11][12] - Wanhua Chemical is highlighted for its strong market position in MDI and TDI, with a projected increase in market share and significant demand support from domestic and overseas markets [17][18]