Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's operational performance is stable overall, with expectations for improved performance in 2024 [1] - Sales in October showed a significant improvement, with a total sales amount of 116 billion RMB, a month-on-month increase of 65.5% [1] - The company has maintained a moderate land acquisition strategy, acquiring 7 plots of land in key cities, with a total land price of 9.2 billion RMB [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - For the period from January to October 2024, the company achieved a cumulative sales amount of 75 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 38.5% [1] - The sales area was 4.12 million square meters, down 39% year-on-year, while the average sales price was 18,211 RMB per square meter, up 0.8% year-on-year [1] Subsidiary Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 21.98 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 18%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 133.3% to 1.01 billion RMB [2] - The subsidiary Shanghai Jinmao Investment Management Group significantly contributed to the company's performance, with a net profit of 1.95 billion RMB in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 260.5% [2] Financial Health - As of mid-2024, the company maintained a healthy financial position with a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.7% and a net debt ratio of 77.4% [3] - The company issued medium-term notes totaling 5 billion RMB at a low interest rate of 2.8%, highlighting its credit advantage [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised upwards to 1.61 billion RMB, 1.79 billion RMB, and 2.50 billion RMB respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.9, 8.0, and 5.7 for the years 2024-2026, indicating a favorable valuation [3]
中国金茂：动态跟踪：经营表现整体稳健，24年业绩有望改善