公司或是下一轮地产板块重估当中的重要标的之一。我们对6-12 个月维度地产板块表现有积极预期， 其中具备良好组织管理能力、基本盘稳中向好的企业或成为投资重点，而中国金茂是该领域中的主要标 的之一。基于保守的房价趋势假设，我们预计公司2025 年末NAV 256 亿元，若2026 年及以后保持稳健 拿地投资，则后续NAV 还将具备可观增长空间。 机构：中金公司 我们与市场的最大不同？我们认为公司存量土储的消化将有序进行，报表层面稳定性或好于市场此前预 期。 研究员：孙元祺/李佳璠/张宇 投资亮点 再次覆盖中国金茂（00817）给予跑赢行业评级，目标价1.86 港元，对应2025 年NAV 折让10%。我们认 为公司在管理与战略端呈现明显积极变化，历史包袱可控、增量弹性可期。理由如下： 管理精进、战略聚焦为价值重塑提供基础。公司新任管理层明确"一核三聚焦"的战略方向，以开发业务 为核心，产品端深化产品力优势、打磨"金玉满堂"四大产品线，投拓端进一步向核心一二线聚焦。具体 看，公司一方面强调增量项目开盘、回款提速，另一方面计划用2025-27 年解决80%存量问题。 增量销售弹性已现，存量土储风险可控。公司1H25 ...

中金对6至12个月维度地产板块表现有积极预期，其中具备良好组织管理能力、基本盘稳中向好的企业 或成为投资重点，而中国金茂是该领域中的主要标的之一。基于保守的房价趋势假设，中金预计公司 2025年末资产净值256亿元人民币，若2026年及以后保持稳健拿地投资，则后续每股资产净值还将具备 可观增长空间。 中金预计公司2025至2026年每股盈利分别为0.10元人民币、0.11元人民币，2024至2026年均复合增长率 (CAGR)为6.5%；基于10%的2025年每股资产净值折让(对应2025年0.6倍市账率)给予目标价1.86港元， 隐含29%上行空间。 中金发布研报称，再次覆盖中国金茂(00817)，予"跑赢行业"评级，目标价1.86港元，对应预测2025年每 股资产净值(NAV)折让10%。中金认为，公司在管理与战略端呈现明显积极变化，历史包袱可控、增量 弹性可期，原因为公司管理精进、战略聚焦为价值重塑提供基础；增量销售弹性已现，存量土储风险可 控。 ...

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: CICC has initiated coverage on China Jinmao (00817) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 1.86, reflecting a 10% discount to the projected net asset value (NAV) per share for 2025 [1] - Positive changes in management and strategy are noted, with manageable historical burdens and expected incremental flexibility, supported by improved management and focused strategy for value reconstruction [1] - CICC has a positive outlook for the real estate sector over the next 6 to 12 months, highlighting companies with strong organizational management and stable fundamentals as key investment targets, with China Jinmao being a major candidate [1] Group 2 - Based on conservative housing price assumptions, CICC estimates that the company's NAV will reach RMB 25.6 billion by the end of 2025, with significant growth potential if stable land acquisition investments continue beyond 2026 [1] - CICC forecasts earnings per share of RMB 0.10 and RMB 0.11 for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% from 2024 to 2026 [1] - The target price of HKD 1.86 is based on a 10% discount to the 2025 NAV, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.6 times, indicating a potential upside of 29% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is accelerating financing through various channels such as credit bonds, overseas bonds, and asset securitization to address year-end debt maturity pressures and prepare for future development amid increased supply of quality land parcels [1][3][10]. Financing Trends - In September, the total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 561 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 31%, with credit bond financing alone amounting to 322 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year growth of 89.5% [3][9]. - The average issuance term for credit bonds in September was 3.65 years, indicating a trend towards longer financing terms, which helps optimize debt structure and alleviate short-term repayment pressures [7]. Company Financing Activities - Several companies are actively issuing bonds, including China Merchants Shekou with a planned issuance of 40 billion yuan at a coupon rate of 1.90%, and China Vanke with a bond issuance of up to 24 billion yuan [6][8]. - Notable issuances include Beijing Urban Construction Group's successful issuance of 18 billion yuan in medium-term notes and Poly Developments' 150 billion yuan bond application accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [6][8]. Challenges in Sales and Cash Flow - Despite the positive financing trends, real estate companies face significant challenges in sales, with a reported 8.4% year-on-year decline in funds received by real estate developers from January to September, particularly in deposits and pre-sales [9][10]. - The ongoing sluggish sales market continues to exert pressure on the overall cash flow of real estate companies, making it crucial for them to balance external financing with internal cash generation [10]. Debt Restructuring Progress - Some distressed real estate companies have made substantial progress in debt restructuring, with over 75% of creditors approving restructuring plans for companies like Longfor Group and Sunac China [8].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對任何就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生 或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔責任。 China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited 中國金茂控股集團有限公 司 （於香港註冊成立的有限公司） （股票代號：00817） 誠如該公告所披露，一份當中載有關於補充協議二及經續期平安金融服務框架協 議的詳情、獨立董事委員會函件、獨立財務顧問函件的通函（「通函」），連同股東 特別大會通告將於該公告刊發後15個營業日內（即2025年10月22日或以前）寄發。 由於需要更多時間落實將載入通函的若干資料，通函的寄發日期將延後至不遲於 2025年11月4日。 承董事會命 中國金茂控股集團有限公司 主席 陶天海 香港，2025年10月23日 於本公告日期，本公司董事為執行董事陶天海先生（主席）、張輝先生及喬曉潔女 士；非執行董事崔焱先生、劉文先生、陳一江先生及王葳女士；以及獨立非執行 董事劉峰先生、孫文德先生、高世斌先生及鍾偉先生。 延遲寄發通函 茲提述中國金茂控股集團有限公司（「本 ...

近日，上海第八次土拍结束，金茂联手上海宝冶以17.51亿元的底价竞得了宝山杨行地块，对应楼面价 约1.46万元/平方米，这也是其今年二度在上海扩土成功。 相较拿地的喜悦，市场对于金茂更大的关注在于其豪宅项目璞元的虚实热销。 那个开盘26分钟便售罄的项目，两个月后还有超两成房源在售。 金茂抢地 实际上，自2015年大宁金茂府一战成名后，金茂在上海的发展便驶入下行通道，核心地段鲜有布局，楼 盘项目维权时现，就连高端产品线"金茂府"也稀缺不再开始走量。 2019年以来，上海有5个金茂府开盘，分布在嘉定新城、普陀桃浦、宝山淞楠、浦东周浦、宝山大场等 （除宝山大场外，其余四个项目均位于外环外），均价4.39万元/㎡—7.8万元/㎡不等。 2023年以来上海楼市遇冷，为了去化，金茂近乎逢开盘必冠"府"，两年间4个府系产品相继入市，部分 甚至中途更名。普陀桃浦项目一期开盘时尚叫"景泰府"，5个月后二期加推直接变成了"金茂府"。更为 波折的是张江金茂府，推广名历经三次调整，一期开盘时名为横沔玖境·瑞府，意在突出横沔古镇历史 文化IP，销售承压后二期改名张江金茂府，更名带来的溢价差引发了业主维权，压力之下，一期项目名 再度调整 ...

10月中旬，北京市朝阳区迎来重量级项目入市，黄衫木店"双子星"开盘当日销售额分别达56.5亿元、 45.65亿元。 璞樾规划9栋住宅楼共426户，户型为152～258平方米全四居，层高约3.16～3.37米。户型包括152平方米 主力户型，188平方米次主力户型，以及195、204、230和258平方米的大户型。 两个项目在此前曾有消息传出将设置花池，但在公布的户型图中并未涉及。在使用面积上，均通过内嵌 阳台+设备平台等赠送空间提高房屋实际得房率，整体得房率都在90%以上。 其中，2107-01、03地块为R2二类居住用地，容积率均2.6，限高80米。01地块占地面积3.01万平方米、 地上建筑面积7.82万平方米，位于北面；03地块占地5.43万平方米、地上建筑面积14.11万平方米，位于 南面。2107-02地块为A334托幼用地，占地5253平方米，容积率0.9，限高16米，位置可结合方案与01地 块统筹布置。 中指研究院土地市场研究负责人张凯介绍，黄杉木店地块位于东四环与五环之间，是所属朝青板块近十 年唯一新增住宅地块。项目南临朝阳北路，东边是平房公园，北侧为京城森林公园，西侧800米左右是 朝阳大悦 ...

2025 年 10 月 22 日 行业研究 1-9 月百城宅地成交"量缩价升"，30 城整体溢价率 11% ——土地市场月度跟踪报告（2025 年 9 月） 要点 2025 年 1-9 月，百城宅地成交建面同比-6%，成交楼面均价同比+17%。 2025 年 1-9 月，百城成交住宅类用地建面为 1.54 亿平，累计同比-6.2%；成交 楼面均价为 6,847 元/平方米，累计同比+17.1%。分能级城市来看，1-9 月， 一线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为 726 万平，累计同比-26.9%；成交建面为 613 万平，累计同比-23.6%；成交楼面均价为 41,137 元/平方米，累计同比+42.0%。 1-9 月核心 30 城宅地成交面积占百城比重 48%，成交总价占百城比重 82%。 2025 年 1-9 月，光大核心 30 城宅地成交建面 7,430 万平，占百城住宅用地成交 建面的比重为 48.1%；核心 6 城宅地成交建面 1,854 万平，占百城比重为 12.0%； 光大核心 30 城宅地成交总价 8,671 亿元，占百城比重为 82.0%；核心 6 城宅地 成交总价 4,976 亿元，占百城比重为 ...

消息上，上海市人民政府办公厅日前印发《上海市促进建筑业高质量发展 加快培育增长新动能行动方 案》的通知。通知提出，稳定房地产投资规模，筑牢上海建筑市场基本盘。推动"好房子"建设，为好设 计、好建造、好服务提供应用场景。 港股内房股逆势普涨，其在，碧桂园涨3.5%，融创中国、雅居乐涨2.5%，万科企业涨近2%，新城发 展、龙湖集团、美的置业、中国海外宏洋集团涨超1%，绿城中国、中国金茂、龙光集团、越秀地产、 中国海外发展均有涨幅。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 ▽ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 02007 | 碧桂园 | 0.580 | 3.57% | | 01918 | 融创中国 | 1.560 | 2.63% | | 03383 | 雅居乐集团 | 0.405 | 2.53% | | 02202 | 万科企业 | 4.730 | 1.94% | | 01030 | 新城发展 | 2.340 | 1.30% | | 00081 | 中国海外宏洋集 | 2.340 | 1.30% | | 03990 | 美的置业 | 4.900 | 1.03% | | 00960 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao [11] Core Insights - China Jinmao is a state-owned enterprise focused on high-quality residential development, benefiting from strong support from its major shareholder, Sinochem Group, and internal management reforms [3][7] - The company has entered a new development phase, with significant improvements in sales performance, achieving a total sales amount of 807 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27%, marking its first entry into the top ten sales rankings [7][28] - The company aims to resolve 80% of its historical issues within three years, with a new product line "Jin Yu Man Tang" receiving positive market feedback [3][10] Overview - China Jinmao is a central enterprise urban operator under Sinochem Group, focusing on high-quality real estate development. The company has historically acquired land at low costs through differentiated models, creating a competitive edge with its "technology residential" products [7][16] - In 2024, Sinochem Group provided perpetual bonds and shareholder loans to support the company, helping it navigate through difficulties [7][21] - The company has seen a significant improvement in its operational performance, with a comprehensive gross profit margin of 16.2% in H1 2025, up 1.6 percentage points from 2024 [7][30] Resource Management - The company has significantly improved its land acquisition strategy, with a land acquisition intensity of 65% in Q1-Q3 2025, ranking among the top enterprises in the industry [8][46] - The focus on major cities has increased, with over 80% of new land acquisitions being small-scale projects, reflecting a more cautious risk appetite [8][46] - As of mid-2025, the company has an unsold inventory value of approximately 320 billion yuan, with about 30% located in first-tier cities [8][46] Efficiency and Operations - The launch of the new product line "Jin Yu Man Tang" has received favorable market reception, with multiple projects achieving strong sales performance [9][27] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, with a significant decrease in financing costs to 3.0% in H1 2025, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [9][10] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of managing existing burdens while creating value through new land acquisitions. The company is expected to gradually improve its profitability, with projected net profits of 7.3 billion, 10.9 billion, and 16.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10][30]