（来源：人才搜寻） 一、公司业绩情况。 | | | | | | | 中国金茂 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 2013年 | 2014年 | 2015年 | 2016年 | 2017年 | 2018年 | 2019年 | 2020年 | 2021年 | 2022年 | 2023年 | 2024年 | 2025年 上半年 | | 收入(亿) | 207. 19 | 295. 48 | 221. 1 | 273. 04 | 310. 75 | 387. 33 | 433. 56 | 600. 54 | 900. 6 | 829.91 | 724. 04 | 590. 53 | 251. 13 | | 毛利(亿) | 92 | 115.59 | 85. 49 | 102. 05 | 100. 41 | 145. 38 | 2 127.65 | 121. 14 | 167. 58 | 131. 46 | 90. 22 | 85. 97 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting opportunities in shopping center value reassessment and new housing tracks [4][22][39] Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with cumulative investment from January to November 2025 down by 15.9% year-on-year, and a significant drop of 30.3% in November alone [4][21] - The sales side is also under pressure, with cumulative sales area down by 7.8% year-on-year and a notable decline of 25.1% in November [22][35] - Funding sources are tightening, with total funding for real estate development down by 11.9% year-on-year, and a sharp decline of 32.5% in November [40] Investment Side Summary - Cumulative real estate development investment from January to November 2025 reached 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with November's single-month investment declining by 30.3% [5][21] - New construction starts fell by 20.5% year-on-year, with a 27.6% drop in November [19][21] - The report forecasts continued weakness in investment, with predictions for 2025-2026 showing construction starts down by 18.0% and total investment down by 14.2% [4][21] Sales Side Summary - Cumulative sales area for real estate from January to November 2025 was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with November's sales area declining by 17.3% [22][35] - Cumulative sales revenue reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a 25.1% drop in November [22][35] - The average selling price of properties decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 9.5% in November [34][35] Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with November showing a 32.5% decline [40] - Domestic loans decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a 10.4% drop in November [40] - Self-raised funds fell by 11.9% year-on-year, with a significant 30.7% decline in November [40]

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 经济工作会议定调，着力稳定房地产、积极稳妥化解风险 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2025/12/6-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 房地产 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(12.6-12.12)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 242.3 万平米，环比-12.3%，其中，一二线环比-12.9%，三四线环比-2.6%。12 月(12.1-12.12)34 城一手房成交同比-32%，较 11 月+ ...

"三方共赢"？ 近日，有关买房贴息的讨论再度引发市场广泛关注。 业内认为，从当下行情来看，该政策有一定可能性出台。通过财政资金对购房贷款利息进行补贴，可在不直接压缩银 行净息差的前提下，实现类似降息的效果，缓解当前银行净息差持续收窄的经营压力。借鉴此前财政贴息消费贷的成 功模式，有望实现财政、银行与购房者的"三方共赢"。 事实上，自2023年末以来，多地已试点"购房贴息"政策，通过阶梯式补贴或按贷款比例贴息降低购房成本。短期数据 显示，部分城市政策落地后新房成交环比增长超15%。 （图片来源：中指研究院） 政策效果已初步显现。中指研究院在研报中称，南京市雨花台区2024年6月政策落地，次月新房成交套数、成交面积 环比分别增长17.5%、15.0%；武汉今年9月末政策落地，次月新房成交套数、成交面积环比分别增长18.7%、5.7%。 多地实践已有初步效果 为激活房地产市场，自2023年末以来，杭州、南京、长春、运城、武汉等多地相继推出购房贴息政策，通过财政补贴 部分贷款利息的方式降低购房成本。 第一财经注意到，目前主要有两类操作模式： 一是按贷款金额比例给予固定贴息。例如，长春、武汉按照初始贷款金额1%发放贷款 ...

摩根大通发表研报指，在近日举行的中央经济工作会议上，关于对房地产市场的表态与先前类似，但与 过去几次政府会议相比，今次关于房地产市场的着墨更多，显示稳定房地产行业仍是内地关键任务之 一。摩通表示，今次会议上未提及具体措施，但认为下一步的政策措施或推出旨在降低购房成本的措 施。该行首选股为华润置地、华润万象生活与中国金茂。 ...

在中国房地产行业进入"存量时代"的当下，一场从"开发逻辑"到"运营逻辑"的深刻转型，正在悄然 发生。 中国金茂正是其中的先行者。 过去十年，这家以"城市运营商"著称的企业，在全国核心城市不断深化布局。而如今，它凭借"投 融建管退"的全周期资产管理能力，通过精品持有业务开辟出一条稳健而具有确定性的"第二增长曲 线"—以商业、写字楼、酒店、文旅和轻资产运营为支点，构筑覆盖城市核心至社区末梢的商业新生 态。截至2025年上半年，中国金茂持有及在营项目已达80个，总体量约360万㎡，叠加在建、待建项 目，总规模近600万㎡，覆盖北京、上海、深圳、天津、青岛、苏州、杭州、宁波、长沙等核心城市。 聚焦城市商业脉动，金茂商业版图的立体布局 作为区域品质商业，天津金茂汇展现出工业遗产改造的独特魅力。项目由伍兹贝格工作室操刀设 计，以"修旧如旧、新旧并置"为核心理念，完整保留老厂房红砖立面、桁架屋顶与煤斗群落，使百年工 业记忆与现代商业空间在光影间对话。在宁波奉化，金茂汇则以TOD商业综合体的形式落地金茂广 场，联动地铁、酒店与乐园，构建出集购物、亲子与休闲于一体的都市微度假目的地。 在览秀城与金茂汇之外，定位为精致社区商业的 ...

港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 12月12日，港股内房股盘初拉升上涨，其中，世茂集团、融信中国、万科企业涨超5%，融创中国涨 4.5%，绿城中国、雅居乐集团、金辉控股、碧桂园皆涨超3%，旭辉控股、中国金茂、龙湖集团、新城 发展涨超2%。 消息上，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议确定，明年要坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化 解重点领域风险。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点 用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 积极有序化解地方政府债务风险，督促各地主动化债，不得违规新增隐性债务。优化债务重组和置换办 法，多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00813 | 世茂集团 | 0.218 | 5.31% | | 01918 | 融创中国 | 1.380 | 4.55% | | 03301 | 融信中国 | 0.160 | 5.26% | | 02202 | 万科企业 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00813 | 世茂集团 | 0.218 | 5.31% | | 01918 | 融创中国 | 1.380 | 4.55% | | 03301 | 融信中国 | 0.160 | 5.26% | | 02202 | 万科企业 | 3.910 | 5.11% | | 03900 | 绿城中国 | 8.840 | 3.51% | | 03383 | 雅居乐集团 | 0.315 | 3.28% | | 02007 | 碧桂园 | 0.500 | 3.09% | | 09993 | 金辉控股 | 2.120 | 3.41% | | 00884 | 旭辉控股集团 | 0.185 | 2.78% | | 01030 | 新城发展 | 2.120 | 2.42% | | 00817 | 中国金茂 | 1.280 | 2.40% | | 00960 | 龙湖集团 | 9.560 | 2.25% | | 00081 | 中国海外宏洋集 | 2.040 | 1.49% | | 03377 | 远洋集团 | 0.112 | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and managing risks in key areas, with a focus on city-specific policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve quality [2][4]. - The report highlights two major opportunities: the rise of "good housing" policies and the potential for value reassessment in commercial real estate, particularly during a period of monetary easing [4][12]. - The report anticipates further supportive policies for both supply and demand in the real estate market, including potential reductions in mortgage rates and optimization of purchase restrictions [4][12]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The report underscores the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies to promote stable economic growth and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][6]. - It suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will become more aggressive, with expectations for further interest rate cuts [4][8]. Real Estate Market - The report notes that the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market reflects a dual focus on halting price declines and addressing existing risks [4][12]. - It mentions the introduction of policies aimed at controlling supply, reducing inventory, and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [4][12]. - The report also discusses the need for reform in the housing provident fund system and the promotion of high-quality housing development [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the value reassessment of shopping centers and the new "good housing" sector, maintaining a "positive" rating for real estate and property management [4][12]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New Town Holdings, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties [4][12]. - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao [4][12]. - Undervalued companies: Jianfa Co., China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments [4][12]. - Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Service, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [4][12]. - Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4][12].

| 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名稱 作出披露的 買入 / 費出或涉及的股 每股的平均價 | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的 有關事 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 份數目 | 原因 | | | (請參閱上述*註解) 有投票權股 (日/月 | | | | | | | 份百分比 | | | | | | | 96 | | DA20251209E00368 | 陶天海 | 1101(L) | 3,100,000(L) | HKD 1.2048 | 12,800,000(L) 0.10(L)09/12/ | 格隆汇12月11日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2025年12月9日，中国金茂(00817.HK)获执行董事兼主席陶天海在场内以每股均价1.2048港元增持310 万股，涉资约373.5万港元。 增持后，陶天海最新持股数目为1280万股，持股比例由0.07%上升至0.10%。 ...