Tianfeng Securities·2024-11-13 13:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 6-month outlook maintained [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of $2.682 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 47%, while the net loss was $493 million, a reduction in loss of 4% compared to the previous year [1] - In Q3 2024, the total revenue reached $1.002 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 28%, but the net loss was $121 million, indicating a shift from profit to loss primarily due to a decrease in non-operating income [1] - The company achieved a non-GAAP operating profit of $65.6 million in Q3 2024, marking the second consecutive quarter of non-GAAP operating profit [1] Financial Performance - R&D expenses for Q3 2024 were $496 million, with an R&D expense ratio of 50%, a decrease of 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Sales and management expenses for Q3 2024 were $455 million, with a corresponding expense ratio of 45%, a decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year [2] - The adjusted R&D expenses for Q3 2024 were $406 million, with an adjusted R&D expense ratio of 40%, down 10 percentage points year-on-year [2] Product Performance - Global sales of the core product, Zebutinib, reached $1.816 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 107%, with Q3 sales of $690 million, up 93% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, Zebutinib's sales in the U.S. were $504 million, reflecting an 87% year-on-year growth, while European sales were $97 million, showing a 217% increase [3] - The company’s other product, Tislelizumab, reported total revenue of $466 million for the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 sales of $163 million, a 13% year-on-year increase [3] Clinical Trials and Pipeline - Clinical trial data for BGB-16673 in R/R CLL/SLL showed an overall objective response rate (ORR) of 78%, with a complete response (CR) rate of 4% [4] - Sonrotoclax combined with Zebutinib demonstrated a 100% ORR in early-phase clinical trials, indicating high efficacy and good tolerability [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards to $265.03 billion, $338.04 billion, and $410.11 billion respectively, reflecting better-than-expected revenue growth [5] - The net profit forecast for 2024 has been revised down to a loss of $40.01 billion, while the 2025-2026 net profit estimates have been adjusted to $-0.54 billion and $14.03 billion respectively [5] Market Expansion - Zebutinib's market share in the U.S. increased significantly, reaching approximately 37.81% in Q3 2024, up from 19.07% in Q3 2023 [12] - Tislelizumab has rapidly penetrated the PD-1 monoclonal antibody market in China, capturing about one-third of the market share as of H1 2024 [13]