在2025年国谈启动的催化下，9月以来持续回调的创新药板块近期强势反弹。11月首个交易日为2025年 国谈收官日，创新药板块早盘同样迎来"开门红"。Wind数据显示，目前全市场仅有的跟踪恒生创新药 指数的ETF——恒生创新药ETF（520500）盘中成交活跃，半日成交额便达11.05亿元。拉长时间来看， 近期恒生创新药ETF（520500）伴随着2025年国谈的推进持续放量，2025年10月30日、10月31日全天成 交额分别达6.04亿元和16.54亿元，相较10月以来（截至10/29）5.84亿元的日均水平明显提振。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 伴随着9月以来创新药板块较长时间的持续回调，当前板块整体的风险或有所释放，市场预期也有所降 低。本次商保创新药目录的设立有望为高值创新药提供更为灵活的市场准入路径，从支付端打开创新药 的市场需求通道，叠加研发管线升级、BD交易落地等行业发展仍在持续推进，未来有望迎来更多的催 化。恒生创新药ETF（520500）支持场内T+0交易、最新规模达17.08亿元，有望担当助力投资者把握港 股创新药发展机遇的重要工具。（数据来源：w ...

开源证券指出，当前纳入医保+商保的创新药大多处于放量初期，随着医保支持创新药的政策红利持续 释放，纳入目录的创新药收入有望快速提升，患者有望持续受益，同时相关创新药企也随之迎来弹性增 长。 国投证券分析指出，根据最新披露的基金2025年第三季度报告，全部基金对Biotech创新药公司的重仓 持仓占医药行业重仓持仓的比重为27.53%，环比提升2.61个百分点，显示机构资金对创新药板块的配置 热情持续升温。25Q3创新药持仓在全市场及医药行业中的占比持续提升，反映出市场对该板块长期发 展潜力的高度认可。 港股通创新药ETF南方(159297)紧密跟踪国证港股通创新药指数，国证港股通创新药指数旨在反映港股 通范围内创新药领域上市公司的运行特征。指数前十大权重股分别为百济神州、信达生物、康方生物、 中国生物制药、三生制药、石药集团、翰森制药、科伦博泰生物-B、金斯瑞生物科技、康哲药业。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 截至2025年11月3日 13:10，港股通创新药ETF南方(159297)上涨3.38%，盘中换手14.72%，成交1.70亿 元，市场交投活跃。跟踪指数国证 ...

港股通创新药ETF（520880）基金经理 丰晨成 我们认为创新药行情可能随时再次启动：首先，之前压制的潜在风险因素，如中美地缘方面，随着双方 领袖、首脑见面，短期内风险得到有效控制。这使得之前忧虑市场风险而退出的投资人，有可能会回补 仓位。其次，近日医药板块开始披露三季报，随着信达生物、恒瑞医药交出优秀业绩，创新药/医药板 块业绩得到进一步确认。最后，从日前医保谈判的信息来看，政策端对创新药依旧"暖风劲吹"，细心呵 护，支持原创创新。 近期我们进行了研究，拆分了上一轮医药行情在动量、质量、价值因子方面的收益表现。从时间维度来 看，创新药这波回调确切来说是从2025年八九月开始的，已经延续两个月左右 ，调整在时间上来说比 较充分；从个股位置来看，其中龙头品种整体已经进入绝对收益区间。从交易层面看，近期创新药主要 受到个别股权资本的减持冲击，并无边际利空消息出现。同时从最近一轮创新药行情开始启动的时间维 度来衡量，也到了大小票市值因子和动量向质量的风格因子切换时间点，我们认为市场或许有可能会在 2025年四季度完成较充分的筹码交换。 风险提示： 1. 上述观点更新于2025.10.31。文中个股仅作展示；个股描 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing price negotiation process for innovative drugs under the 2025 National Medical Insurance (NMI) negotiations, highlighting the participation of various pharmaceutical companies and the significance of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory [2][12]. Group 1: Price Negotiation Process - On November 2, 2025, a total of 10 companies participated in the price negotiation for 11 drug products, including 2 products from BeiGene [2][4]. - The negotiation process is divided into two groups, with each group negotiating separately with representatives from the National Medical Insurance Administration and commercial insurance companies [4][6]. - The first company completed its negotiation in 45 minutes, indicating a generally positive atmosphere among participants [6][7]. Group 2: CAR-T Drugs - CAR-T drugs, known for their high prices, are receiving attention in the commercial insurance innovative drug directory, with one product priced at 999,000 yuan per dose, making it the lowest-priced CAR-T drug in China [7][11]. - Multiple CAR-T drugs received unanimous approval during the expert review phase prior to the negotiations, indicating strong interest from the commercial insurance sector [11]. Group 3: Expectations and Concerns - Companies are primarily focused on the potential patient access to drugs rather than just price reductions, expressing uncertainty about how the innovative drug directory will facilitate market access [12][13]. - A representative mentioned that the National Medical Insurance Administration suggested a price reduction expectation of 15% during pre-negotiation discussions [12]. - There is a notable interest in the innovative drug directory as it allows companies to recover substantial R&D costs without necessitating significant price cuts [13].

记者 张铃 11月2日，2025国家医保谈判（下称"国谈"）进行到第四天。下午2点，商保创新药目录价格协商工作正 式开始。 根据国家医保局此前公布的通过形式审查药品名单，2025年共有121个药品通过商保创新药目录形式审 查。一家参与价格协商的企业人士告诉经济观察报，最终进入创新药目录价格协商环节的药品为24个。 经济观察报记者从现场签到表上看到，11月2日下午一共有10家企业的11款药品参与价格协商，分别是百 济神州（688235.SH/06160.HK/ONC.US）、合源生物、复星凯瑞、凯兴生物、绿叶制药（02186.HK）、 驯鹿生物、山东新时代、天津红日（300026.SZ）、远大医药（00512.HK）。其中，百济神州有2款产品 进入价格协商阶段。 企业代表排队入场 多位企业人士透露，跨国药企进入创新药目录价格协商名单的产品将在11月3日上午进行价格协商。 一位企业代表告诉经济观察报，11月2日下午的价格协商分两组同时进行，每组的企业分别单独进场协 商，参与协商的包括国家医保局和保司。 CAR-T"谈得很顺利" 经济观察报注意到，参与价格协商工作的企业都非常重视创新药目录，多家企业由老板亲自带队上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The proportion of public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector has decreased quarter-on-quarter, but the market is expected to experience a rebound [2][23]. - The investment focus should increasingly emphasize the clinical value of pharmaceuticals, driven by domestic and international policy changes [3][34]. - The report highlights the potential for continuous valuation recovery and upward movement in the pharmaceutical sector due to the opening of the US interest rate cut cycle and advancements in domestic innovative drugs [2][35]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week, the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 1.31%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.74 percentage points [1][17]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index fell by 0.11%, but still outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 1.97 percentage points [1][17]. Company Updates - Notable clinical application approvals include Shanghai Lai Shi's SR604 injection and YKYY013 injection from Yuekang Pharmaceutical [39]. - Ongoing clinical trials include HRS-8080 from Heng Rui Pharmaceutical and ICP-332 from Nuo Cheng Jian Hua, both in Phase III [39]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a three-stage clinical value investment strategy: "0 to 1" for technological breakthroughs, "1 to 10" for clinical validation, and "10 to 100" for efficiency in the Chinese market [34][35]. - Key recommended companies include Innovent Biologics (H), Eifang Biologics-U, Tian Shi Li, WuXi AppTec (A+H), and Mindray Medical [36]. Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2025, the market value of public funds heavily invested in pharmaceuticals is 11.93%, down by 0.32 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][24]. - The top 20 stocks by market value show significant upward movement for companies like Rongchang Biologics and BeiGene (H) [2][30]. Financial Performance - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a revenue decline of 2.0% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 182.11 billion yuan [59]. - The report indicates a positive trend in the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector, with a steady recovery in PE ratios since Q1 2025 [34].

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector experienced significant declines, prompting a structural shift in market funds towards the innovative drug sector, which saw notable gains on the same day [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The innovative drug sector rose by 3.91% amidst a downturn in the technology sector, successfully breaking through the 20-day moving average with increased trading volume, signaling positive market sentiment [3]. - The innovative drug sector had been in a downward trend since August but began to stabilize and form a bottom pattern in October [3]. Group 2: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Market - The global market for MS drugs is projected to reach approximately $18.5 billion in 2024, with a significant portion of sales coming from third-generation products, particularly CD20 monoclonal antibodies [6]. - CD20 monoclonal antibodies are expected to account for over 60% of the MS drug sales in 2024, with the drug Ocrelizumab projected to generate sales of 7.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4% [6]. Group 3: Chemical Pharmaceutical Industry - The global chemical pharmaceutical market grew from $1,038 billion in 2019 to $1,128 billion in 2023, with expectations to reach $1,156 billion in 2024 [10]. - In China, the chemical pharmaceutical market size was 883.9 billion yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, projected to increase to 945 billion yuan by 2024 [10]. Group 4: Innovative Drug Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, 21 A-share innovative drug companies reported revenues of 28.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%, while net losses narrowed significantly [11]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw these companies achieve revenues of 15.34 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with net losses reduced by 97% [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Continued policy support for innovative drugs is expected to enhance performance, with an increase in product launches anticipated to drive revenue growth [15]. - The active business development (BD) transactions in the innovative drug sector in the first half of 2025 are expected to bolster the apparent performance of related companies [15].

Macro Dynamics - In September, the bond market issued a total of 81,027.8 billion yuan in various bonds, including 14,904.9 billion yuan in government bonds, 8,519.1 billion yuan in local government bonds, 11,741.0 billion yuan in financial bonds, 13,407.3 billion yuan in corporate credit bonds, 365.7 billion yuan in credit asset-backed securities, and 31,627.8 billion yuan in interbank certificates of deposit [2] - In September, China's foreign exchange market had a total transaction volume of 26.87 trillion yuan (approximately 3.78 trillion USD), with the interbank market accounting for 22.44 trillion yuan (approximately 3.16 trillion USD) [3] - In the first three quarters, the revenue of large-scale internet and related service enterprises in China reached 14,420 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [4][5] Financial Institutions - China Taiping announced the sale of minority stakes in four companies for a total consideration of 6.5 billion yuan [8] - Hangzhou Bank received approval to issue capital instruments not exceeding 40 billion yuan [9] Market Data - On October 31, A-shares saw a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.14%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.31% [11] - The financing balance in the two markets decreased by 7.392 billion yuan, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange reporting a balance of 12,535.78 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange reporting 12,196.92 billion yuan [12] Company Dynamics - China National Petroleum Corporation announced the resignation of Zhou Song as the chairman of the supervisory board [14] - InSai Group decided to terminate a major asset restructuring plan due to changes in the external environment [15] - Tianqi Co., Ltd. signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Foxconn Automotive to deploy at least 2,000 embodied intelligent robots over the next five years [17] - Li Auto announced a recall of 11,411 units of the MEGA 2024 electric vehicle due to potential safety hazards [18] - Qingyue Technology is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected false financial reporting [19]

证券之星消息，10月31日，医疗健康R（480016）指数报收于7755.61点，涨1.68%，成交401.03亿元，换 手率1.25%。当日该指数成份股中，上涨的有43家，泽璟制药以16.14%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有6家，凯莱 英以4.33%的跌幅领跌。 | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300760 迈瑞医疗 | | 2.62 亿 | 11.16% | -1.27 Z | -5.42% | -1.34 Z | -5.74% | | 688235 百济神州 | | 2.33 Z | 13.90% | -2.25 Z | -13.41% | -810.20万 | -0.48% | | 002653 | 海思科 | 9277.82万 | 16.28% | 313.75万 | - 0.55% | -9591.57万 | -16.83% | | 002001 | 新和成 | 9037.75万 | 12.87% | ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant growth and potential of China's innovative pharmaceutical sector, highlighting key trends and market dynamics that suggest a promising future for the industry [6][7][30]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overseas licensing transaction amount reached $84.5 billion, accounting for 33% of global transaction volume [2]. - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index has seen a year-to-date increase of 100.7%, while the Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index has risen nearly 115.9% [3]. - The Hong Kong healthcare sector has raised more capital through IPOs this year than in the past three years combined [4]. Group 2: IPO Activity - Since September, over 12 pharmaceutical companies have submitted IPO applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5]. - As of October 23, 2025, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is processing approximately 300 listing applications, with half from new economy sectors such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology [5]. Group 3: Innovative Drug Development - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's innovative drug company Legend Biotech's CAR-T therapy Carvykti achieved sales of $1.332 billion in the U.S., marking it as the first domestic innovative drug to surpass $1 billion in sales [6]. - The first half of 2025 saw the National Medical Products Administration approve 40 innovative drugs, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024 [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its growth trajectory into 2026, driven by favorable policies and improving market conditions [7][30]. - The differentiation within the pharmaceutical sector is anticipated to persist, with innovative drugs likely to outperform traditional sectors [31][32]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the trends of "innovation, overseas expansion, and demand improvement" as key areas for potential growth [7]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the dynamics of the innovative drug market, including the potential for high returns despite inherent risks [27][30]. Group 6: Challenges and Risks - Concerns remain regarding whether Chinese innovative drug companies can successfully commercialize their products overseas, which is seen as a significant risk factor [23][24]. - The article notes that the current phase of overseas expansion is characterized by a reliance on licensing agreements rather than joint development or independent market entry [15][18]. Group 7: Competitive Landscape - The article highlights the competitive nature of the innovative drug sector, with a significant number of companies vying for leadership in key therapeutic areas [25][26]. - The emergence of a "2.0" phase in overseas expansion indicates a shift towards more collaborative and independent development strategies among Chinese pharmaceutical companies [15][16]. Group 8: Future Opportunities - The article identifies several promising areas for growth, including innovative drugs, medical devices, and sectors benefiting from demand recovery [30][33]. - The potential for Chinese companies to establish themselves in global supply chains, particularly in emerging markets, is also noted as a significant opportunity [29].