Koal(603232) 国泰君安·2024-11-13 23:11Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price raised to 23.06 CNY (+2.62) [4][6] Core Views - The company's cost optimization in 2024Q1-Q3 has significantly improved Q3 gross margin, and with continued cost control, the performance is expected to exceed expectations [1] - The company's revenue in 2024Q1-Q3 was 333 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.40%, with a net profit of -0.38 million CNY, slightly worse than the previous year [4] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 139 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 17.24%, and a net profit of 12 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.00% [4] - The gross margin in Q3 2024 was 53.96%, a significant increase of 18.17 percentage points year-on-year, and the expense ratio for the first three quarters was 58.68%, a decrease of 4.90 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company has made strategic deployments in Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) since 2021, with products and solutions already in pilot applications in several banks, poised for rapid growth once PQC standards are released [4] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be 660, 561, 631, 738, and 868 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.9%, -14.9%, 12.4%, 17.0%, and 17.6% [3] - Net profit (attributable to parent company) for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be -9, 37, 63, 96, and 124 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -110.9%, 524.3%, 69.3%, 52.7%, and 29.4% [3] - EPS for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be -0.04, 0.16, 0.27, 0.40, and 0.52 CNY, respectively [3] - ROE for 2022A, 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected to be -0.6%, 2.6%, 4.3%, 6.3%, and 7.8%, respectively [3] - P/E ratios for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 94.76, 55.96, 36.66, and 28.33, respectively [3] Business Segments - Revenue from general security products is expected to grow by 10%, 17%, and 17% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [15] - Revenue from PKI infrastructure products is expected to grow by 12%, 15%, and 18% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [15] - Revenue from PKI security application products is expected to grow by 15%, 18%, and 18% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [15] Valuation - The company is valued at 57.0 times 2025E P/E, with a reasonable market value of 5.444 billion CNY [16] - Comparable companies in the cybersecurity industry have an average 2025E P/E of 55.30, with the company receiving a premium due to its leading position in the PKI sector [16][18]