Linglong Tyre(SH:601966) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-11-14 06:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for Linglong Tire is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported strong Q3 performance with revenue of 15.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.71 billion yuan, up 78.4% year-on-year [1] - The Serbian factory is ramping up production quickly, which is expected to improve profitability [1] - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2024-2026, with net profit expectations of 2.23 billion, 2.74 billion, and 3.17 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 60%, 23%, and 16% respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 2022A: 17,006, 2023A: 20,165, 2024E: 24,961, 2025E: 28,468, 2026E: 31,610 [1] - Year-on-year growth rate: 2022A: -8%, 2023A: 19%, 2024E: 24%, 2025E: 14%, 2026E: 11% [1] - Net profit (million yuan): 2022A: 292, 2023A: 1,391, 2024E: 2,232, 2025E: 2,736, 2026E: 3,167 [1] - Year-on-year growth rate: 2022A: -63%, 2023A: 377%, 2024E: 60%, 2025E: 23%, 2026E: 16% [1] - Earnings per share (yuan): 2022A: 0.20, 2023A: 0.94, 2024E: 1.51, 2025E: 1.86, 2026E: 2.15 [1] - Cash flow per share: 2022A: 0.10, 2023A: 0.81, 2024E: 4.94, 2025E: 2.29, 2026E: 3.28 [1] - Return on equity: 2022A: 2%, 2023A: 7%, 2024E: 10%, 2025E: 11%, 2026E: 11% [1] - Price-to-earnings ratio: 2022A: 103.5, 2023A: 21.7, 2024E: 13.5, 2025E: 11.0, 2026E: 9.5 [1] - Price-to-book ratio: 2022A: 1.6, 2023A: 1.4, 2024E: 1.4, 2025E: 1.2, 2026E: 1.1 [1] Sales and Cost Analysis - Tire sales volume in Q3 2024 reached 21.429 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [1] - The cost of major raw materials increased, with a 1.87% rise from Q2 2024 and a 15.40% increase year-on-year in Q3 2023 [1] Future Outlook - The company expects continued growth in profitability as the Serbian factory's production capacity increases [1] - The projected PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 14X, 11X, and 10X respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [1]