兴业科技：期待盈利能力回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 10.05 yuan [5][14] Core Views - The company's 24Q3 revenue was 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 35% to 0.5 billion yuan [1] - For 24Q1-3, the company's revenue was 20 billion yuan, up 4% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to the parent company decreasing by 37% to 1.1 billion yuan [1] - The company's gross margin for 24Q1-3 was 21.27%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 7.7%, down 2.88 percentage points [1] - The company's asset impairment loss for 24Q1-3 was 0.87 billion yuan, compared to 0.48 billion yuan in 23Q1-3, mainly due to increased inventory write-downs [1] - The company's subsidiary increased capital in its secondary subsidiary, Lianhua Leather, to support its daily working capital needs and expand overseas production capacity [1][3] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's 24Q1-3 revenue growth was 4%, with a net profit decline of 37% [1] - The company's EPS for 24-26 is forecasted to be 0.5 yuan, 0.7 yuan, and 0.9 yuan, respectively, with PE ratios of 19X, 14X, and 11X [4] - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 2,847.99 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5% [7] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be 153.77 million yuan, a decrease of 17.47% year-on-year [7] Production and Market Strategy - The company has multiple production bases, including Anhai Plant, Andong Plant, and subsidiaries such as Ruisen Leather and Xingning Leather [1] - The company's products cover a wide range, including leather for shoes, bags, automotive interiors, and electronic coverings [1] - The company's strong production capacity allows for resource integration in raw material procurement, giving it strong bargaining power with suppliers [2] - The company's diversified products, channels, and customer base ensure stable demand and help reduce fixed costs through economies of scale [2] Overseas Expansion - The company's subsidiary increased capital in Lianhua Leather, located in Indonesia, to tap into the local market potential and improve overseas production layout [3] - Indonesia, with a population of over 270 million, is the world's fourth-largest shoe producer and third-largest shoe exporter, offering significant market opportunities [3]