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好未来：FY25Q2业绩超预期，素质教育+学习机业务快速发展。
TALTAL(TAL) 第一上海证券·2024-11-14 07:49

Investment Rating - The report assigns a Buy rating to TAL Education Group (TAL) with a target price of 14.9∗∗,representinga∗∗48.114.9**, representing a **48.1% upside** from the current price [4] Core Views - TAL's FY25Q2 results exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in quality education and learning device businesses [2] - Revenue for FY25Q2 reached **619 million, up 50.4% YoY, beating market expectations by 6.3 percentage points [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit was 64.52million∗∗,up∗∗22.564.52 million**, up **22.5% YoY**, with a margin of **10.4%** [2] - Non-GAAP net profit reached **74.33 million, up 25.4% YoY, with a margin of 12.0% [2] - The company ended the quarter with 3.45billion∗∗incashandshort−terminvestments,withnobankdebt[2]BusinessPerformanceEducationBusiness−Educationandtrainingaccountedfor∗∗ 703.45 billion** in cash and short-term investments, with no bank debt [2] Business Performance Education Business - Education and training accounted for **~70%** of total revenue, growing over **45% YoY** [3] - Quality education contributed **~50%** of education revenue, growing **~70% YoY** [3] - High school education accounted for **~15%**, showing stable growth [3] - The company added **over 400 offline learning centers** in FY25Q2, with full-year capacity expansion expected to grow **50% YoY** [3] Content Solutions - Content solutions accounted for **~25%** of revenue, growing **over 50% YoY**, driven by learning device sales [3] - The company launched the **xPad Classic 2024** priced at **450-500 and a lower-priced practice device, expanding its product line [3] - Learning device sales reached ~150,000 units in the quarter, with a weekly active rate of 80% [3] Financial Outlook - For FY25Q3, revenue is expected to grow 39% YoY to 520million∗∗,withcontinuedstronggrowthinnon−academictrainingandlearningdevices[3]−Thecompany′sprofitabilityisexpectedtoimproveasupfrontinvestmentsinvariousbusinessesgraduallytaperoff[4]Valuation−Thetargetpriceof∗∗520 million**, with continued strong growth in non-academic training and learning devices [3] - The company's profitability is expected to improve as upfront investments in various businesses gradually taper off [4] Valuation - The target price of **14.9 is based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 11% and a long-term growth rate of 3% [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from a stabilizing regulatory environment and continued market demand for education services [4]