微软云商业订单增长快速，资本开支高增长扩大供给

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Microsoft (MSFT) with a target price of $500, reflecting an 18.2% upside potential from the current price [1][16]. Core Insights - Microsoft reported a revenue of $65.6 billion for the quarter, a 16% year-over-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates of $64.5 billion [1][3]. - The company's GAAP net profit was $24.7 billion, an 11% increase year-over-year, also exceeding consensus expectations [1][3]. - Azure revenue grew by 33% year-over-year to $16.8 billion, with AI contributing 12 percentage points to this growth [1][3]. - The commercial order volume for Microsoft Cloud increased by 30% year-over-year, indicating strong demand despite supply constraints [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the quarter was $65.6 billion, up 16% year-over-year, with product revenue at $15.3 billion (down 2%) and service revenue at $50.3 billion (up 23%) [1][3]. - Gross margin was 69.4%, a decrease of 180 basis points year-over-year, while operating margin was 46.6%, down 100 basis points [1][3]. - GAAP diluted earnings per share were $3.30, exceeding expectations of $3.11 [1][3]. Cloud Business - Azure revenue increased by 33% year-over-year to $16.8 billion, with AI contributing significantly to this growth [1][3]. - Microsoft Cloud revenue grew by 22% year-over-year to $38.9 billion, with commercial orders up 30% year-over-year [1][3]. M365 and Productivity - M365 commercial cloud revenue rose 15% year-over-year to $18.2 billion, driven by an 8% increase in paid commercial seats and higher ARPU [1][3]. - The daily active users of M365 Copilot doubled compared to the previous quarter, with nearly 70% of Fortune 500 companies now using it [1][3]. Future Guidance - Microsoft expects revenue for FY2025 Q2 to be between $67.8 billion and $69.1 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 9.8% to 11.4% [1][3]. - The long-term growth rate is projected at 3%, with a WACC of 8.5% used for DCF valuation [1][16]. Market Position - Microsoft continues to face competition in the cloud computing market, particularly from AWS and GCP, but its Azure business is expected to benefit from AI service demand [1][18].