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奈飞：双边网络效应扩大，盈利指标稳步提升
NFLXNetflix(NFLX) 第一上海证券·2024-11-14 07:49

Investment Rating - Target price of 823.00,withaHoldrating[8][10]CoreViewpoints−Netflix′sbusinessmodelbenefitsfromatwo−sidednetworkeffect,creatingavirtuouscyclebetweenhigh−qualitycontentandalargeuserbase[1]−DespitecompetitionfromtechgiantslikeApple,Amazon,andDisney,Netflixmaintainsaleadingpositionintermsofreturnoninvestmentandprofitability[1]−Userengagementmetricsremainstrong,withanaveragedailyusagetimeof2hoursperpayinguser[1]−Thead−supportedsubscriptionplanishighlyattractive,withadrevenueexpectedtobecomeamoresignificantincomesourceby2026[1]−RevenueCAGRisprojectedat15823.00, with a Hold rating [8][10] Core Viewpoints - Netflix's business model benefits from a two-sided network effect, creating a virtuous cycle between high-quality content and a large user base [1] - Despite competition from tech giants like Apple, Amazon, and Disney, Netflix maintains a leading position in terms of return on investment and profitability [1] - User engagement metrics remain strong, with an average daily usage time of 2 hours per paying user [1] - The ad-supported subscription plan is highly attractive, with ad revenue expected to become a more significant income source by 2026 [1] - Revenue CAGR is projected at 15% from 2023 to 2026, with EPS CAGR at 32% [1] Financial Performance Summary 2024Q3 Performance - Revenue increased by 15% YoY to 9.825 billion, exceeding the company's guidance of 14% [1] - Net subscriber additions reached 5.07 million, bringing the total global user base to 283 million, a 14% YoY increase [1] - Operating margin rose by 7.2 percentage points to 29.6%, surpassing the guidance of 28.1% [1] - Diluted EPS was 5.40,higherthantheguidanceof5.40, higher than the guidance of 5.10 [1] - The company repurchased 2.6 million shares for 1.7billion,with1.7 billion, with 3.1 billion remaining in the current buyback program [1] - Ad-supported user base grew by 35% QoQ, with over 50% of new users in ad-supported regions [1] 2024Q4 Guidance - Revenue is expected to grow by 15% YoY to 10.128billion,withusergrowthexceeding5.07million[1]−Operatingmarginisprojectedat21.610.128 billion, with user growth exceeding 5.07 million [1] - Operating margin is projected at 21.6%, with diluted EPS of 4.23 [1] 2024 and 2025 Guidance - 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 14-15%, with an operating margin of 27% [1] - Free cash flow is projected to be between 6.0−6.5billion[1]−2025revenueisexpectedtogrowby11−136.0-6.5 billion [1] - 2025 revenue is expected to grow by 11-13%, with an operating margin of 28% [1] Valuation and Financial Metrics - DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 9.0% and a long-term growth rate of 3.0%, resulting in a target price of 823.00 [8][10] - Current price implies P/E multiples of 41x, 34x, and 29x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8] Regional Performance - North America: Revenue grew by 16% YoY, driven by a 10% increase in members and a 5% rise in ARPU [4] - EMEA: Revenue grew by 16% YoY, primarily driven by new user additions [4] - APAC: Revenue grew by 19% YoY [4] - LATAM: Revenue grew by 9% YoY, with negative net user additions in Q3 but recovery expected in Q4 [4] Ad-Supported Business - Ad-supported monthly active users reached 70 million globally [1] - Ad sales contracts grew by over 150% YoY [4] - Netflix's proprietary ad tech platform is set to launch in Canada in Q4 2024 [4]