MANGO(300413) Huachuang Securities·2024-11-14 23:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 31.65 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 27.70 CNY [4][2]. Core Insights - The company has a rich reserve of content for 2025, including over 100 dramas and variety shows, which is expected to drive a positive product cycle [2]. - The operational turning point is anticipated soon, with the company showing growth in content viewership and advertising recovery expected in the coming year [2]. - The international expansion plan is underway, with significant growth in downloads of the Mango TV international app, indicating potential new revenue streams [2]. - The financial outlook includes projected net profits of 1.72 billion CNY, 1.97 billion CNY, and 2.15 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a recovery trajectory after a significant decline in 2024 [3][2]. Summary by Sections Content Strategy - The company is enhancing its content team and introducing innovative products such as "story-based advertising" and "IP derivative shows" to strengthen content dissemination [2]. - The variety show lineup includes over 100 new shows, maintaining a structure of 60% returning shows and 40% new formats, with notable titles like "Singer 2025" and "Riding the Wind 2025" [2]. - The drama reserve is also robust, featuring over 100 titles across various genres, with collaborations from renowned writers and producers [2]. Market Position - As of the first three quarters of 2024, the company holds 9 out of the top 20 spots in both TV and online variety shows, showcasing its strong market presence [2]. - The company has experienced a 24% increase in viewership, contrasting with a 15% decline in the overall long video platform segment [2]. Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to be 14.52 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decline from 2023, followed by a recovery to 16.21 billion CNY in 2025 [3]. - The net profit is expected to rebound from a significant drop in 2024, with a forecasted growth of 14.6% in 2025 and 8.7% in 2026 [3]. Valuation - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 30x for 2025, with a market capitalization of 592 billion CNY, reflecting its status as a unique state-owned long video platform [2][3].