MANGO(300413) 华创证券·2024-11-15 00:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Mango Excellent Media with a target price of 31.65 CNY per share [1][8] Core Views - Mango Excellent Media is a state-owned long-video platform with strong content reserves, particularly in variety shows, and is expected to see a performance inflection point soon [1] - The company's variety show production capabilities are well-established, while its drama segment is still catching up but shows potential for breakthroughs [1][6] - The company is actively expanding its international presence through the "Mango Overseas 2024 Action Plan" and the "Mango TV International App Doubling Plan" [1] Content Segment - Variety shows remain the company's core strength, with a proven track record of producing hit series such as "Mystery Variety," "Singing and Dancing Brothers and Sisters," and "Family Variety" [1][6] - The drama segment has seen increased investment since 2020, with notable improvements in viewership starting in 2023, and several hit dramas such as "Meet Yourself" and "You Are My Fireworks" have emerged [1][6] - The company has a rich pipeline of dramas for 2024 and 2025, including "Good Luck Family," "National Beauty," and "Five Blessings," which are expected to drive further growth [1][6] Monetization Segment - Membership revenue is expected to grow healthily, driven by both B2B and B2C channels, with ARPPU (Average Revenue Per Paying User) already showing significant improvement [1][6] - Advertising revenue is expected to recover in 2025, supported by cyclical recovery and continuous content innovation [1][6] - The operator business, which has been under pressure due to policy changes, is expected to return to healthy growth starting in 2025 [1][6] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 to be 1.722 billion CNY, 1.973 billion CNY, and 2.146 billion CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of -52%, +15%, and +9% [1][8] - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 14.517 billion CNY, 16.206 billion CNY, and 17.724 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.8%, +11.6%, and +9.4%, respectively [2] International Expansion - Mango TV International App's overseas downloads have increased from 130 million in 2023 to 210 million in 2024, with a 5.3% increase in downloads from Europe and the Americas [1] Business Structure - The company's revenue is primarily driven by Mango TV (71% in H1 2024), followed by e-commerce (19%) and content production (9%) [1][20] - Mango TV's core business has the highest gross margin among the company's segments [1][20]